12/16/06: More On The Jennings Trade; Also, Looking At Lincoln Holdzkom, Rule V Reliever

Sorry, I should have posted this last week. I got interrupted by all the Andy Pettitte hoo hah and the Jennings trade.

AND the loss of Russ Springer, don’t let me forget THAT.

Anyhow, Holdzkom is the minor leaguer we picked up in the Rule V draft from the Cubs. Usually, we lose guys. This year, we didn’t.

Lincoln Holdzkom is a 24 soon to be 25 year old righty reliever who was drafted in the 7th round of the 2001 draft by the Marlins, spent a whole lot of time on the DL for the past few years, including Tommy John surgery in 04. He’s never pitched higher than the Southern League AA. Last year, he pitched 32.1 innings with a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.78 BB/ 9 and 7.52 K/ 9 IP.

He hasn’t done quite so well this winter in the AFL, 20.1 IP over 13 games, with 3 HR, 13 BB and 21K – he gave up 19 runs, 16 earned, for a shiny 7.08 ERA. Yecccccch.
You might could say small sample size, but of course last year in AA was small sample size, too.
Fortunately, he doesn’t have to be added to the roster until after Spring Training (as I understand it) and if I am wrong, well, we can leave Zeke Astacio off the 40 man.

- Now for something completely different – back to the Jennings trade.
Let me say this first – I have NEVER said that Jennings isn’t any good. I KNOW he pitched in Coors.

The question I am trying to answer is this one -
is even one year of a pitcher who pitches exactly like Andy Pettitte did in 06 worth trading 11 years of 2 starting ML pitchers who are 4 years younger and have a lot less experience?
(I would even ask the same question if we had gotten Johan Santana for the same price.)
Yes, I am ignoring Willy Taveras, who is not a good bat and is a slightly above average fielding CF.

I keep hearing – well, if we re-sign Jennings…
What does reup have to do with anything? UNLESS it is a waaaayyyy below market deal type extension AND he pitches like 05 AND neither Hirsh nor Buchholz is any good, then it is not a good deal.

It’s like this – suppose Jennings now signs an extension for 5 years at 55 million (which at the prices crappy starting pitchers are commanding he would be a damm fool to do.) Then we are paying 10 mill a year for 6 years. Suppose he pitches like Pettitte did last year – a 105 ERA+ every year – 210 innings and 33 starts – and this assumes he does not get hurt or get worse as he ages, which is a pretty long long shot.

NOW suppose Hirsh and Buchholz each do the same. The Rockies will get 5 years of Buchholz and 6 years of Hirsh at maybe 25 – 30 mill combined. Then they got 2 guys just as good for half as cheap as the one they let go.

Yeah, who knows how well 2 pitchers will do who have not grown up in the Rockies system and gotten used to pitching at Colorado Springs, or pitching with a humidor baseball. Who knows how well a pitcher will do who has an ERA over 10 in 3 starts at the Box? For all we know, he may be Jose Lima here. I sure don’t want to sign Jennings to a 5 year contract BEFORE he even throws a pitch for the Astros.

As for Willy, who most fans are SERIOUSLY upset about losing, well, I see no reason to think he is going to turn into Willie Mays or Andruw Jones or Vernon Wells, let alone Kenny Lofton. (Anyone besides me notice that Willy can’t steal against lefty pitchers?) IF Biggio goes down and Chris Burke does go to second, we have another singles hitting, no walk, base stealing glove man in AAA named Josh Anderson.

Yeah it WOULD be funny if Willy does turn into Rickey and if I am wrong and he does, I SWEAR I will tell the truth and say I never never thought in a zillion years that he would ever amount to more than Tom Goodwin or Juan Pierre.

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One Response to “12/16/06: More On The Jennings Trade; Also, Looking At Lincoln Holdzkom, Rule V Reliever”

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