Yes, you read that right.
Brett Myers is going from the rotation – throwing 200 innings, to the closer’s position – which means he’s gonna throw, what, 25 innings?
You talk about a waste of money – and Crane wants to dump Wandy so badly (oh yes he does)?
Myers was converted to a closer in the 07 season when he started the year badly – 3 starts – he, uh, volunteered – ahem – to go to the bullpen as there were suppoedly too many starters, Tom Gordon couldn’t close and Alfonseca wasn’t any good either and Myers ended up closing by June.
Of course, in 07, the Phils had plenty of other guys who could start. And Myers returned to starting the next year, threw 30 games over 190 innings of 97 ERA+ ball. I should mention that naturally, his strikeout rate climbed when he was relieving, but his walk rate remained steady.
The Astros have re-done his contract so that his incentives are commensurate with a closer, not a starter, which means that Myers must have either volunteered or agreed to close. This means that the Astros have zero confidence in Lyon’s recuperation, or at least his ability to recuperate before the deadline and are therefore stuck with his 5 mill, or most of it. I’m guessing they think that the ol WB will be more tradeable as a closer, especially because he will be only a couple mill for whoever picks him up.
It’s interesting that they were so sure that no one else was capable of closing, because it really is an idiotic expenditure of 14 million dollars (including the buyout) to anyone not named Mariano.
They still haven’t found a deal they like for Wandy, so he’s probably getting tossed at the deadline.
This makes the starting rotation
Jordan Lyles
Wandy
Bud
Happ-less
and???
most likely Livan Hernandez, who isn’t what you’d call good, but who can “eat innings” – unless they get lucky and Weiland, Jarred Cosart or Paul Clemens look like SuperAce – which they’d like because they desperately want to persuade the few remaining fans that those guys are good, Really Good.
I seriously doubt that Zach Duke would make the rotation. He didn’t pitch well for the Pirates, but then again, he didn’t pitch well for anyone else. Lucas Harrell might could get lucky, too, youneverknow, but I sure didn’t see anything impressive from him any more than the White Sox did.
I know what you’re thinking – but Lisa, the Astros NEED somebody good to be a stopper, to preserve the few victories we Do get,seeing as how we got rid of the closer we DID have, and wouldn’t you rather see the young guys Get Confidence than watch the ol WB throw his lousy 85 ERA+ 200 innings?
I suppose so, but Livan Hernandez and Zach Duke aren’t what you’d call Young Guys. Well, maybe they’ll give Weiland a chance. It’s interesting that teams, even really BAD teams, seldom give a young guy any sort of real chance to learn to play. Michael Bourn was lucky that Ed Wade ordered Cooper not to bench him… Wandy was lucky that Phil Garner was SOOO sure that he was gonna be a good ML pitcher and kept giving him chances. Youneverknow.
Tags: Houston Astros
Lisa -
I don’t know, I’ve been impressed by the new management and can’t believe there’s not some deeper logic at work here. Based on what I’ve seen from Luhnow, I’d guess he’s thinking that Myers will become more attractive as trade bait after / if he makes the case that he can close. There are still teams that will pay a lot of money for “proven closers.” They won’t take on all of his salary, but if he does well, Luhnow will probably find some GMs of contenders who are interested in taking on some of it & giving back a prospect or two. Luhnow’s saying all the dumb things to the public you’d expect him to say, but he can’t say anything else. If this were Ed Wade, I’d be throwing up my arms. But Luhnow seems a different animal.
Just bought a hundred shares of Kyle Weiland stock.
madison,
why are you impressed by new management? what have they done? jack cust – jack CUST – who makes carlos lee look like mr gold glove – to play RF?
you DO know that crane wants the playroll as low as possible without getting trouble from the MLBPA, right? you do know that teams can no longer put any sort of money except for slot into the draft, right?
myers wasn’t tradeable as a starter, naturally. thing is, that as a closer, he costs 10.5 mill plus a 3 mill buyout. that is, if he doesn’t meet criteria that would force his option to be picked up – that would be 21 mill for 2 years. at the end of july, you are talking 13.5 mill for 1 year and 2 months of brett myers – not papelbon, not mariano. how much do YOU think brett EFF myers is worth as a closer – i mean, this is not even like renting KRod for a month. we are talking brett EFF myers here.
IF there would be some way that the option wouldn’t kick in, then you would be taking 6.6 mill for 2 months. Which is STILL a ton for who we’re talking about. Meaning that crane would have to eat a lot of that – and what is it you think he can get for brett EFF myers?
and, by the way, if the team pulls funny business to keep myers from getting his option picked up, it is gonna look very VERY bad – i mean, it’s not like the astros have ever been able to get really top notch FA.
Lisa , take a look at Myers pitch count results… i was thinking as I read this in the Astros Daily Newsletter, the Houston Chronicle, about BM closing and I got to thinking that he gets shelled in the first inning,, I looked up his pitch count results and pitches 1-15 are the worst of any thing he throws,, BM gets better as the game goes on,, so I get to thinking what is he gonna like strolling out of the bullpen to Theme of “The Good The Bad an dThe Ugly” movie in the 9 th… this is not a good,, LUHS-NOW blew this call, this is going to be bad,,,
Myers being moved to the closer, isn’t “written in stone”. If it doesn’t work out,
there are a few other guys, one of them being Lyon, can step up. Becky:)
Lisa – I don’t know the details of Myers’ contract and the criteria that would force the Astros to pick up his option. I’ll look into that. And I wasn’t speaking of Crane, whose history bothers me, but of Luhnow. Of course Myers as a closer isn’t worth the money he’s getting paid. But he’s not worth the money he’s getting as a starter either. And he’s not going to fetch the team top prospects in either role, even if they can flip him mid-season, but if he’s successful in the new role he’s likely to bring back something, and probably more than he could if he were a middling starter. I tend to discount the data on his first innings because relievers come into the game with different goals than starters, who have to establish several pitches early. I think the odds of his being a very good closer are greater than they are of his being a very good starter. That’s the gamble that Luhnow’s taking.
If I were Luhnow, my main goal right now would be not to win today but to position the team to win the day after tomorrow. Putting Myers in a new role where he has a greater chance of attracting interest from successful teams – and at the same time allowing the Astros to kick the tires on young starters – makes sense to me, even if Myers is ludicrously overpaid in that new role.
I don’t get the Cust deal myself. I assume Luhnow’s taking a flyer on a guy who was an above average DH a couple of years ago, but why get him now? Maybe he’s concerned that some American league team will get him in the meantime. I assume he’s getting minimum. I agree that if he plays the field, he’s a net loss. But aren’t you encouraged, even a little bit, that for the first time in a long time, the team is rewarding guys who can draw a walk?
What I like about Luhnow so far: 1) dealing for Lowrie, who has the potential to be a regular shortstop who can hit (with caveats about his health and defense); 2) taking a low-risk flyer on Travis Buck; 3) the decision to embrace quantitative analysis – and more than that, the decision to look carefully at how the team makes decisions. That’s what the Mejdal hiring signals to me. If you think decision science is ivory tower nonsense, then I could see why you’d be dismissive. I don’t think it’s nonsense. But at the least, it means that Luhnow’s prepared to question baseball orthodoxy and do things that don’t at first seem to make sense – like stick Myers in the pen where he can try to make good on the few closing opportunities this team will give him.
I can’t find the number of relief appearances Myers needs to get his option. I’d guess that he would have been more likely to hit his old target of starts than the new relieving target, but I’m probably underestimating his agent. For me, whether this makes sense is determined by 2 things – their ability to get another team to give the Astros something for Myers, and whether they use the rotation spot to give a young guy time to see what works against major league hitters. Present-year value (200 IP vs. 60) is beside the point. I can take 65 wins as easily as 70 in a team that’s rebuilding. As you know, it’ll be easier to attract a contending team’s interest in a good closer than a mediocre starter – and I’m guessing Myers stands a decent chance of being a good closer.
becky
it’s not written in stone, but they DID change his contract so he could close. of course, i haven’t see what it actually SAYS, so if he does go back to starting, there might could be provisions for that, too.
i read that ed wade is happy to FINALLY be “home” in philly. like he ever left…
madison,
appreciate the reply.
i do appreciate statistical analysis, trust me on this, and i am delighted that mike fast has joined the FO – hope they listen to him.
myers would have to look like gagne 06 (rangers) to get any serious trade interest because of that option year. but they weren’t getting ANY interest in him as a starter. and my idea of letting young guys start is not using livan hernandez and zach duke.
i don’t have anything against drawing walks, trust me on this – swing at crap out of the zone is not likely to result in a hit. but jack cust is simply not a good hitter and he strikes out way too much (and yes I know all about kinds of outs). he isn’t better than any young guy. i liked junior cruz a couple years back, and he was a good glove, but ALL he did was walk and strike out. and cust isn’t better enough to cancel out his terrible fielding. i also think that pinch hitters should be able to move runners over, if necessary, and cust can’t do that.
i don’t have a problem with giving worn out vets/given up on guys a tryout at ST.
except
the Organization is more likely to put the ex-big leaguer with a good ST and a crappy track record on the 25 man than a young guy with the same good ST
Let’s just hope and pray Crust isn’t another Bill freakin Hall!!!!
As far as Ed Wade being happy to be back with the Phillies………..he’s laughing
his butt off at the Astros, for “settle-ing” for the few so/so prospects we got from the Roy O and Pence trade. I can hear him all the way in Kingwood laughing!!!
PLUS…….he’s STILL GETTING PAID by this owner!!
Has anyone signed Roy O yet? I bet he could be signed to Roger ( homestand starts only) kind of deal by the Astros or Rangers for less than WB gets to close. Maybe some heavy equipment to sweeten the deal.
Becky,
remember that Drayton was such a, um, “meddler” that Ed Wade was their ONLY candidate who would agree to “work with” Tal Smith. They hardly had any applicants. Even the mainstream writers were talking about Drayton’s insistence in, um, “meddling.”
Billy,
no one has signed Roy-O. I seriously doubt Roy wants to be on yet another losing Astros team with lousy fielders and no run support. PLUS, I am positive that Crane, who is still trying to reduce payroll, wouldn’t sign him. I also hear that a lot of teams want Wandy, but Luhnow won’t just trade him for salary relief and is asking an enormous amount. The new CBA with its salary cap is making it tougher to trade higher paid players, even if their salary is reasonable for their value.