Yes, Roger (I wish it was Roy, but close but no cigar)
Here’s what Ken Rosenthal had to say today in The Sporting News about the Cy Young race:
N.L. Cy Young: Roger Clemens over Chris Carpenter
I don’t care that Carpenter began the week with 17 wins to Clemens’ 11 ; (emphasis mine) a starting pitcher’s record is based partly on his run support and the performance of his bullpen. Clemens’ average run support of 3.91 per nine innings with the Astros is more than a run per game below Carpenter’s with the Cardinals. By most measures, Clemens has been the better pitcher. He has allowed three earned runs in 73 road innings, and his overall 1.53 ERA matches Dwight Gooden’s 1985 mark for the second lowest since 1919. Carpenter’s ERA is 0.76 higher, and Clemens also has the superior opponents’ on-base plus slugging percentage, .507 to .584.
Carpenter, however, has produced three of the N.L.’s top five “game scores,” according to a formula devised by Bill James that measures the effectiveness of a particular start. Carpenter also has pitched 18 more innings than Clemens in the same number of starts and produced a better strikeouts-to-walk ratio.
Carpenter has had a great season, and if Clemens falters, it’s easy to see Carpenter winning the award or the Marlins’ Dontrelle Willis stealing it with a big September. But if Clemens finishes with an ERA below 2.00, he will be more than worthy of his eighth Cy Young.”
Carpenter also has 5 CG and 3 SO and Roger has none.
Chris has 23/25 QS, Roger 22/25
Roger has 10 starts where he gave up NO ER (won 5, got 5 ND), Chris has 6 (won all 6)
Roger has 7 starts where he gave up 1 ER (4 W, 1 L, 2 ND), Chris has 6 (won 5, 1 ND)
Roger has 5 starts where he gave up 2 ER ( 1 W, 2 L, 2 ND), Chris has 4 (2 W, 2 ND)
Roger has 1 start where he gave up 3 ER ( L), Chris has 7 (4 W, 2 L and 1 ND)
Roger has 2 starts where he gave up 4 or more ER (1 W, 1 L), Chris has 2 – 5 ER and 8 ER ( 2 L)
So Roger has 4 more starts with NO ER and 5 ND – bullpen lost him 5 games
Roger has 1 more start with 1 ER with 1 more L (sucky hitting) and 1 more ND (sucky relief)
Roger has 1 more start with 2 ER but 1 fewer W and 2 more L
Chris has SIX more starts where he gave up 3 ER and Roger lost his ONLY game, while Chris won 3
Yall seeing a pattern here? Roger should have at LEAST 22 wins if he had Chris’ run support.
This is why win/loss ain’t everything…
Roger ROOLZ!!!!!!!!
Tags: Houston Astros, MLB
Lisa,
Just came across your blog. I really like the perspective you offer an dhow you stay on top of everything so well.
I’d like to link to it from my blog. And you may be interested in the post I’m making today regarding Roger’s future prospects.
Enjoy it,
John.
Lisa,
Your post is reminiscent of my post on Clemens/Welch:
http://catfishstew.baseballtoaster.com/archives/210605.html#5
Looks like history may repeat itself 15 years later.
Tom
Lopez@Large
The Clemens effect & blogs worth reading
An Astros player was talking the other day about the moves club management did not make. He acknowledged that it wasn’t exactly great pickings out there, but something could have been done. And maybe something should have been done, but,…
Hi Tango!!!
(In case yall readers don’t recognize his name, he’s THE baseball statistician – click on his blog (upper right) for a look at his excellent work)
it always amazes me that so many people think that whether or not a pitcher “wins” or “loses” a game is completely indeopendent of the other 24 guys on his team.
lisa
hi john!!!
i’m surprised and flattered that a gen-u-wine newspaper reporter is reading my columns!!!!! thank you for the compliment and of course i’d greatly appreciate the link.
you talk to the guys, and i just watch them, but i think you right about both roger and the lack of a bat…
lisa