The guy sitting next to me said “we suck so bad we can’t even beat LaTroy Hawkins…”
He was right.
Greg Maddux beat Roger Clemens tonight, which thrilled the probably like 6000 Cub fans in the crowd of 41,000 something.
We broke the team 21 scoreless inning streak in the first – Taveras singled, then damn near got CS on a hitandrun with the 3rd pitch (oooooh Phil is getting tricky) but fortunately for him, Barrett threw high. Baggy walked, then Lamb doubled to right, Taveras scored, then Baggy was caught in a rundown between third and home. Neither Lane or Ensberg managed to get Lamb home. In fact, Lane’s bat grew cold on April 20, the last time he had an RBI.
Roger started off sharp, but in the second, first he couldn’t get his FB to catch the corners and he walked Derrek Lee, then Aramis Ramirez singled, then Burnitz his a first pitch changeup scoring Lee, then Hollandsworth doubled down the left field line – Lamb, for some reason out there instead of Chris Burke or Luke Scott (it had better be because of flu, otherwise there is no justification) don’t run real too fast, and Ramirez scored. So with 2 on, Clemens gritted his teeth and got out Barrett, Maddux and Hairston.
So then it was Cubs 2 Astros 1 and although Baggy tied it up with an el-cheapo HR into the Crawford Boxes in the 3rd, we just didn’t knock in any more runners. As usual. Roger cruised until the 7th – then he threw a splitter that didn’t split and it sailed 407′ just barely fair of the right field fair pole. Roger struggled through the rest of the inning and was saved from 2 more ER by an incredible diving catch by Jason Lane, his second outstanding catch of the night – he had made another GREAT running catch in the 6th.
Russ Springer was rather Rusty in the 8th – Derrek Lee doubled, then Aramis Ramirez hit a single to shallow center – Lee tried to score (a good idea, BTW, seeing that Taveras doesn’t seem to have a strong arm and his previous throws had been waaaaaaaaaay off line, but this time, his throw was right on the money and just in time to tag Lee out.
Brad Lidge, John Franco and Adam Everett are so sick with the “flu” that they didn’t even come to the ballpark tonight. Adam ain’t zackly Pujols with the bat, but he’s sure nuff better than Bruntlett.
We had 7 H and 4 BB and we left 7 MOB. I guess we should be happy that SOMEONE getting on base…
Tags: Cubs, Houston Astros
You got that right – why are those guys not at the park even tho they have the flu? I know of lots of pitchers who have pitched despite having flu-like symptoms, it’s not that hard to pitch if you’re feeling ill (some pitchers actually pitch better when they’re sick because it makes them focus on the batter instead of their ailment). Like I been saying all year, Gary Gaetti’s a hacking hitting coach, but hacking isn’t the style the Astros need to use – they need to hit and run and move runners over because they don’t have a lot of power with Lance Berkman out (although chances are good he’ll return next week).
hi yall!!!
i forgot -
watching roger beat out that infield single was, as far as I’m concerned, the thrillingest thrill of the whole astos hitting game.
“flu” can mean just about anything. i hope they ain’t got what ben sheets had..
lisa
I maintain a stat for all MLB starters I call: Starter Win-Loss record. Every starter gets a win or a loss in every start. No blown saves costing a starter a win, no bench come-backs bailing out a starter’s poor performance. The criterion is simple: total runs allowed divided by innings pitched. The lower percentage of the two starters gets the starter win, the higher percentage pitcher in the game takes the starter loss. Occasionally there is a tie which counts as half a win and half a loss. Here are the Astros starters SWL records to date:
Oswalt 4-2
Pettitte 2-3-1
Clemens 1-3-1
Backe 4-1
Duckworth 0-2
This comes out to 11-11-2, or 12-12, splitting the difference re the two ties.
As the Astros have a team record of 11-13, this also indicates that the team has lost
a net 1 game on the season in the bullpen. Having a below par bullpen to go with a
mediocre starting rotation is not promising of much successs. Berkaman’s return will
jack up the offense, but unless the month of May is a turnaround month for the club,
it figures to be a long season.
rob, i think that is a VERY interesting way to do win/loss and i like it better than “neutral” wins fer SHER
BUT it doesn’t take into account what the bullpen does – sometimes inherited runners score and sometimes they don’t…
interesting that Backe has the best record – the boy is good for a #4
lisa
Perhaps I am not alone here in that I like to put my money where my mouth is, on occasion, as regards MLB “investment opportunities.” I see, as of this morning, the Astros with Clemens are -200 v. the Pirates with Redman who are currently +185. -200 means you lay $200 (or a fraction or a multiple thereof) to win a gross $300 = $100 net profit if you win. +185 means you win a gross $285 on a base $100 wager, a net of $185.
So which side, if any, represents value here? I update several indicators daily for all MLB teams. Here is how these two teams break down on my sheet…
Team Indicators: Easily the most powerful indicator of a team’s relative strength (or weakness), is a team’s SWL (starter win-loss) record. This simply attaches a starter win to the more effective of the two starting pitchers, based upon which of the two shows the lower percentage of total runs allowed divided by innings pitched. Why is this so important? Because, historically, going back 10 years of research, MLB teams getting the starter win, go on to win the game 85% of the time! So right away one can tell that a team, like the LA Dodgers with a current SWL record of 11-14, are headed for a major crash – unless they get their starting pitching straightened out. Currently the Astros are 12-12
SWL record, while the Pirates are 7-16-1, decided advantage: Houston.
Another indicator I use is “Bull Pen Net.” This compares the team’s overall record with its SWL record. Any difference can be attributed to the pen. The Astros are 12-12 SWL, but 11-13 overall, one game inferior, so that, from this we know the Astros pen has cost the team a net 1 game on the season so far. Pittsburgh is slightly above par with a BPN rating of + 1/2 game, which I record as: 100 1/2, 100 representing par. The Astros, on a 110 par Bull Pen Net basis are currently 99. Looking at the Dodgers one more time they have a BPN record of 105! Sensational, yes, but again, with starting pitching accounting for 85 % of the results, you would rather see most of your strength connected with your starting pitching.
Looking at the Astros in right-left match ups, I have another indicator, called “The 100 Scale,” which shows a win-loss points accumulation of just 40-157, so far. I won’t go into the mechanics of how it is calculated at this time, but trust me, the Astros are vulnerable to left-handed pitching. The Pirates are below par in their left-right 100 Scale tally, showing a record of 284-374, which is better than the Astros record in this category, to date.
In blow-out games, the Astros score a sizzling record of 130-40, by my scoring method, while the Pirates are baseball’s worst team in this category, with a dismal record of 26-255. The Pirates NEVER blow anybody out, you are always in the game vs. Pittsburgh.
This is a telling category, as the great teams always log a high score in terms of their blow-out game record. This is a much more powerful indicator of team strength than a team’s record in one-run games (credit: Bill James).
Finally, we have two pitchers starting tonight who are not worth risking a dime upon, in either case. Roger Clemens has a SWL record of 1-3-1, so far, and lefty Mark Redman is a dismal 1-4. Much as I would like to devine from my crystal ball which side represents value in tonight’s match-up, I must pass, as the greatest value of all, here, given innate weaknesses on each side, is to pass playing this unfathomable contest.