Evan Hochschild, a reader of this blog, wrote a comment several days back in which he disagreed with my belief that this year’s team is not particularly good as it is lacking in good pitching and and even league average defense and that the hitting most likely will not overcome the mostly not particularly good pitching. Evan was also not exactly sorry to bid goodbye to the players the Astros either traded away or did not re-sign.
“I guess you have this superior baseball knowledge so as to lambast this team at every turn. You (apparently by the grace of God) have a baseball blog. Regardless of your: sex, gender, socio-economic background- I am not impressed by your takes.
You seem to dislike every move this team has made. Perhaps they were risky, but ultimately, will it matter? We had no farm system to begin with. Estrada, Albers, Patton, etc: they weren’t true prospects! True, they were young, but they were not going to turn out to be anything of real value. You seem to be fixated with these farmhands of ours. Chris Burke! Oh, wow! A 28 year old positional vagabond! Be still my beating heart. I’ll concede he would’ve been more economical than Kaz, but what have you seen in him to justify any degree of faith in him. What tools does he have? His average at best defense? His average range? His less than average speed?
I appreciate your assertion that you will NEVER will unenthusiastic about your team. While I appreciate the sentiments, that claim on its face seems to be empty. I mean, you had to make that statement, right? Either way, I don’t come here for information, I come here more as a sadist- it’s entertaining for me to read your constant berating of this team.”
Funny, I thought that should have been “masochist” not “sadist,” but perhaps he means wannabe sadist, who knows? But anyway, I’m not closed-minded, perhaps I AM overly pessimistic, so I offered Evan opportunity to write a guest column rebuttal on this season’s Astros, explaining his optimism. You can see for yourselves if he has made his case. Here it is, unedited in any way by me.
——-
Time to get Acclimated
I feel dizzy. My head is spinnin’.how could yours not be after this past off-season and spring training? Regardless of whether we can keep ours, balance will be the name of the game for the 2008 Houston Astros. GM Ed Wade came, saw, and he dismantled. Let’s lay out a few the pertinent facts of 2007, to see what faced Mr. Wade after Craig was carried off on the city’s collective shoulders:
Team Runs Scored: 723, 13th in the NL
Team OPS: .742, 11th in the NL
Team ERA: 4.68, 12th in the NL
Saves/Save Opportunities: 35/55 = 63.6%
Use any stat lines you’d like, the fact of the matter is that this team’s performance was abysmal in 2007. The Astros tried living off of their successes in 2004 and 2005 for too long, and in doing so, were forced to come to grips with a 73-89 record that marked just their second losing season in the past eleven.
Without re-hashing old mistakes or assigning blame, change was in order, and time was of the essence. Simply bringing in Carlos Lee and Woody Williams would not suffice this off-season. The man who built the Philadelphia Phillies team that made the dramatic (and concededly lucky) division title push, would be confronted with the challenge.
Starting Pitching
Determined not to overspend, and seeing no viable options in the trade market, the Astros head into 2008 with familiar faces, Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe and Chris Sampson as starters.
Wait a minute- aren’t we missing a certain aged Houstonian?? As our luck would have it, no we are not. Woody Williams was released not but an hour before this column was written. Ed Wade convinced Drayton to eat the remaining 6 million dollar plus left on his contract. Going 0-3, with an 11 plus ERA in the spring did not do much to help assuage fears that his 2007 season was a late career bump in the road.
Nevertheless, Shawn Chacon was signed to a reasonable one year contract and will be inserted as our fourth starter for the time being. Felipe Paulino will miss the first month of the season with a pinched nerve, but will surely be counted on to become part of this rotation before the season in over.
Starting pitching clearly will not be a strength in 2008. With a farm system that’s barren, and a trade market that was unwelcoming, not a whole lot could have been done in the area. We need only look north to the Texas Rangers to see what overpaying for free agent starters (Chan Ho Park, Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Kevin Millwood) can do to a team’s ability to play winning baseball. Ed Wade took note of this and instead sought to make change where he could.
The Bullpen
Ed Wade is known in baseball circles for his propensity to sign/trade for relief pitchers with the abandon of a Carlos Lee going after the last post game shrimp scampi. My attempts at humor aside, that tradition was not broken in his first off season in charge of the Astros. As touched on earlier, the 2007 Astros simply could not nail down games when push came to shove. A 64 percent conversion percentage by your team’s set-up men (in our case Mr. Qualls and Mr. Wheeler) and closer (Mr. Lidge) translates into inconsistent and ultimately losing baseball. Couple that with our less than stellar starting pitching, and a recipe for disaster was apparent.
If it’s consistency you desire in a set up man, then Doug Brocail is just what the doctor ordered. With a career ERA of 3.99, Brocail will be asked to preserve leads heading into the 9th inning. After having a rejuvenating year in the San Diego bullpen last year, Brocail enjoyed the expansive Petco parameters to the tune of a 3.05 ERA, while giving up only 66 hits in 76 and 2/3 of a inning.
Chad Qualls was and will probably remain a very good late inning pitcher. That cannot be debated. However, of his 82 hits given up last year 10 were home runs (the same number given up in 2006). Strikingly inconsistent at times, Qualls has the stuff to be among the best relief pitchers in baseball. His rate stats are impeccable (K/9 of above 8, and a K/BB ratio of above 3.0), but his mental makeup leaves more to be desired. Brocail himself gave up 8 long balls last year, but only a combined 13 in the last four.
The loss of Qualls was mitigated by the fact that, well, he was traded with positional vagabond Chris Burke for Jose Valverde. The NL saves leader this past season, Valverde was a catalyst for the Diamondbacks run to the top of the Western Division. His 47 saves (in 54 opportunities) mean that he blew less saves in twice the amount of opportunities than Brad Lidge. He is under contract with the Astros for at least the next two seasons.
The last major piece of bullpen change came about early in the off season. Josh “.650 OPS or bust” Anderson was shipped out to Atlanta for middle relief man Oscar Villareal. He was immediately signed to a multi year contract, and will be used as primarily a seventh inning pitcher, but has experience setting up the closer as well. Regardless of what happens with Villareal, Ed Wade turned a middling (that’s too kind.below replacement level? Yeah.that’s better) outfielder and came up with a reliever who can help solidify a part of this team that needs to be excellent in order to compete.
Relievers are not a dime a dozen, either in price or availability. There is nothing more frustrating than having a starter pitch well, only to have the lead given up by a guy who should be changing my coolant at Jiffy Lube. Brandon Backe, Chris Sampson and Shawn Chacon will not be expected or needed to pitch deeper into games than they are able to, either. The old baseball adage about making the game shorter with your bullpen is a proven method to winning, and hopefully it can be duplicated this season.
Geoff Geary (who came over in the Lidge trade), Dave Borkowski and Wesley Wright (Rule V draftee) have not been mentioned, but combine those three with the three new editions, and this bullpen should offer the flexibility and consistency that the team makeup demands in order to be a respectable 2008 squad.
What to expect at the plate
Like the bullpen, our everyday lineup has seen a near complete overhaul from 2007. Only Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee remain from last season’s opening day lineup. Fan favorites Luke Scott and Mike Lamb are no longer with the team. Opposing pitcher favorites Adam Everett (free agency), and Brad Ausmus (now a reserve) are either no longer with the team or can only hurt the offense in a limited capacity. Top to bottom, things should look like this:
(1) Homegrown outfielder Michael Bourn is set to take his career .340 OBP to the top of the lineup to serve as the main catalyst for the offense. After being a reserve/defensive replacement in Philadelphia, Bourn is here to get on base for the sluggers behind him. He will be able to use his speed (17 stolen bases in 18 chances in 2007) to put pressure on opposing pitchers as well. I am not a tremendous fan of the stolen base, but, with percentages like his, this is a high reward, low risk situation that is rarely seen in baseball. Although a majority of steals occurred while not being held on at first in late game scenarios, Bourn still stands to steal upwards of 40 bases this year. Additionally, he is fine defensive outfielder from most accounts, which is good, considering our leftfielder will never be confused with Barry Bonds circa 1993. Bottom line with this guy is that he’s 25, under our control for years to come and will only improve as he gets more experience. An OPS of around .720 is not out of the question. After two years of struggling to get men on base at the top of our lineup, Bourn will seek to prove himself ready and able.
(2) Due to circumstances beyond his control, presumptive number two hitter Kazuo Matsui will miss at least the first two weeks of the season after surgery for anal fissures? What? Did “The Onion” come up with this? Well, as it stands, Kazzy will be out for the count, letting Hunter Pence man the two spot. Arguably the lone on the field bright spot the Astros had last year, Pence smashed Astro rookie records for slugging percentage and extra base hits. He has everything lined up nicely for himself to surpass those numbers. As he begins his first full season as a major leaguer, Pence still has much to learn about how to be a big league hitter. This shouldn’t stop him from being a 25 HR/25 SB man. Couple that with 80-85 Runs and RBI, and Hunter stands as an unquestionable star in the making. Projected to max out in the OPS range of .890 in the next four to five years, his is a horse that this organization will hitch their wagon to for years to come.
(3) Ahhh, a familiar face. After all, is that what we as Astros fans like? Familiarity? Uncle Drayton (to borrow a phrase of Lisa’s) sure does. And from what we’ve learned this off-season, number three hitter Lance Berkman does as well.† He let it be known that he didn’t like having to acclimate himself to a new clubhouse. While Morgan Ensberg may have been a great gin rummy player, the fact remains that Lance’s new teammates in the lineup are improvements over the old stalwarts. I won’t go so far as to say that they will help “protect” him (a concept that contrary to Joe Morgan’s assertions, does not exist), but he should have more chances to knock in runs.† Lance cames off the most disappointing 30/100 season in recent memory. Unless it takes him two months to collect more than two doubles again this year, Lance will surpass his .880 OPS and be the super star performer that he has been in years past. An on base machine, Lance still has four good years left in him. Also, we wouldn’t have thought so after watching him flail about on Tal’s Hill in the past, but Lance is an above average defensive player. With fears of diminished range on the left side of the infield, Lance’s unsung talents at first base may be among his most important.
(4) Another familiar face, Carlos Lee is slated to bat cleanup for this year’s squad. Coming off another solid, if not spectacular year, Lee led the 2007 team in RBI, total plate appearances and hits. It is difficult to justify a 6 yr/$100 million dollar deal, but Lee did as much to approach that value as he could, given his career statistics. We all know the schtick against him: he is a poor (I’m being generous) defensive outfielder who also drew the ire of Craig Biggio after not always hustling to first base after hitting assumed ground ball outs. This is the man who will also see the largest regression in the next few years, as his “big man” skills will diminish more quickly than a more athletic player. So, yes, lambaste Drayton for overpaying for offense. But in the overall scheme of this team, like it or not, is to win now. I’m admittedly trying to shine the best light on Carlos, but as it stands, anything can and has happened. *(see: Cardinals, The St. Louis. 2006)
(5) How do you think the conversation went down? Maybe something like this:
The Scene: December 13th, 2007. A spacious office on Crawford Street, Houston, Texas. A content middle aged man surfs the internet while chatting on his cell phone. In walks an older associate with a grim look on his face.
Tal Smith: Hey, Ed. D’you get a chance to look at the Mitchell Report yet?
Ed Wade: Not yet. I haven’t done much yet today. After making the trade for Miggy yesterday, I’m pretty tuckered out.
T.S.: Yea speaking of Miguel- that’s sorta what I came in here for. You may want to check out the report.
E.W.: All right, all right. (Smith stands in the doorway as Wade sifts through the initial pages of the document. An exasperated look comes upon Wade’s face as he sees Miguel Tejada’s name mentioned more than forty times.)
E.W.: Do you remember where I put the receipt?
So, it may not have gone exactly like that, but the nature of the trade for SS Miguel Tejada had an odd element of timing to it. Tejada was traded for on December 12th, and was named the following day in the release of the Mitchell Report. Wade claims to have had no idea about the imminence of his outing, but no baseball fan worth his salt can truly believe him in this regard. As far back as 2003 when Rafael Palmiero attached his name to steroids, Tejada has been under a cloud of suspicion.
On the field, Tejada will be expected to improve on the Astros offense from the SS position (a house plant has a shot to nail this requirement down) and play well, just play defense. A still deadly pull hitter, the winner of the 2004 All Star Home Run Derby should again be able to find his stroke to the tune of a 25 HR season. On the books for the next years at nearly twenty million per, Mr. Tejada has much to prove. Adam Everett was a fan favorite. He was squeaky clean off the field, and a smooth defensive player on it. The fact that he couldn’t sniff a .700 OPS to save his life didn’t seem to matter. Perhaps his ineptitude was overshadowed by that of Brad Ausmus. Regardless, Miguel Tejada is still a thumper extraordinaire. We should be able to get another two near All Star caliber years out of him, and then send him on his way.
(6) Perhaps the least sexy Astros positional player, Ty Wigginton will begin 2008 as the Astros everyday third sacker. Gone are the days of the double headed attack of Mike Lamb and Morgan Ensberg. Lamb has moved on to greener pastures on the Astroturf of Minnesota, and Mo is dancing on the line between Yankee reserve and farmhand. Wigginton is a professional hitter, plain and simple. A man who’s splits (.287 against RHP and .269 against LHP) are much more reasonable than either of the aforementioned Astros, Wigginton will have the opportunity to play nearly everyday. Unspectacular yet efficient, a .800 plus OPS will be a treat from either the six or seven hole. Another pull hitter, the folks in the Crawford Boxes should expect more Landry’s gift cards courtesy of Ty.
(7) A breath of fresh air. The exuberance of youth. Whatever phrase you like, J.R. Towles is embodies that much and more. A September call up in 2007, Towles impressed with an 8 RBI performance against the Cardinals, while showing poise in his game calling. He still has a lot of room for growth defensively, but with Officer Ausmus showing him the ropes, he couldn’t have a better teacher. When it comes to hitting, it’s Ausmus who should have the notebook out. Towles has the stroke of a doubles hitter who should be able to find the gaps and use his superlative speed to take the extra base. Possibly the only catcher outside of Chavez Ravine who can hit double digit homers and swipe double digit bases, J.R.’s growth will be among the most important for the Astros in 2008. How he learns to handle the pitching staff, his ability to get on base at the bottom of the lineup and the leadership qualities he gleans from the veterans in front of him will be paramount in the future successes of this club. An OPS of .760 this year, with many years of over .800 in his future, Mr. Towles stands ready to take up the challenges of being a starting catcher in the bigs.
(8) We all know the story at second base. A man who needs no introduction. A standout at Seton Hall Unive -Sorry. Had to catch myself there. Taking the place of future Cooperstowner Craig Biggio are two familiar faces (Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum) and the aforementioned free agent addition Kazuo Matsui. Loretta and Blum are similar players both defensively (limited range) and offensively (will struggle to get on base). However much they may struggle to get on, it is very likely they will do so with greater propensity than Kaz Matsui. Kaz, he of the hyper-inflated home/road split, parlayed an excellent second half of 2007 into a big time free agent contract. Ed, I’ve defended you against the pack of wolves on this blog, but I cannot do so here. This was a move to attach the Astros to a bit of the magic that surrounded the Colorado Rockies’ run to the NL pennant. A simple search of his home batting average last season (.330) and road counterpart (.249) would indicate that the Coors Field affect is in full play with Kazzy. That being said, even Matt Holiday had a .780 OPS away from the park with the pine trees. Regardless, he’s here and he’s our second baseman. Matsui is a package that offers plus speed on the base-paths and range defensively. However, it’s difficult to deny the fact that Ed Wade overestimated his abilities, and this team will have to bite the financial bullet for this overestimation.
As for our reserves, Spring Training is basically the showcase for who will be a team’s bench contributors. Jose Cruz, Jr., Darrin Erstad and Brad Ausmus will be front and center in this regard. Cruz and Ausmus hit well in the Spring, and Erstad has a World Series victory to his credit.
Tags: Houston Astros, MLB
Sounds pretty pretty good to me. The reason I like it, is also the reason I like PECOTA. They break up players into to percentiles of their ability, and then they weight the mean by the probability they’ll play at each level. However, they let you look at each level and make subjective call, high, low, or probable. As yesterday’s game attests to, as does Friday’s, there are reasons to be high on this team, low on this team, or some combination thereof, and it’s nice to get a taste of something other than reactionary pessimism. My question to Lisa is: given the off-season and where we were before it, what you have done in Ed Wade’s shoes that would have been so much better?
Great stuff, Lisa. Evan is a putz (and not J.J. Putz, either). He’s just pissed because you are a girl and in his world girls aren’t supposed to know more about baseball than him.
The Astros could have a winning season IF none of their big offensive names get hurt AND play up to their standards, and IF we get the Valverde of 2007 rather than a previous model, and IF these suspect bullpen arms can keep it together, and IF (the biggest IF of all), guys like Wandy, Backe, and Sampson can turn in fully healthy career years.
That’s a bunch of IFS, and too many possible ways to disappoint. I predict they will play around .500 ball and come in 4th behind Chicago, Milwaukee and Cincy, in that order.
JDolla$,
I think you failed to connect with anything that was actually written. I don’t think Evan ever made an accusation that Lisa, because of her gender, is an incompetent baseball analyst. I believe he questioned whether it is completely fair to offer that there is not possible way that this team is decent via hyper critical assaults of Spring Training stats and pointless hypotheticals about players dealt and then offered a balanced analysis of the team. This analysis allowed all those IFs to come to light. I don’t think he ever asserted that the Astros would make the playoffs, only that the Astros were not assured of a miserable season. Further, even if the Astros were to finish behind all the aforementioned teams in the Central. You predict the Astros play .500 ball, in my estimation, thats exactly the kind of neutrality that Evan was aiming to achieve, versus Lisa’s reactionary pessimism through which, I guess, she is asserting that the ‘Stros will win 75 or less — I’d say less given her distain for the current team. So there you go, you actually bolstered Evan’s claim and dismissed Lisa’s, the exact opposite of what you were aiming for I take, given your opening statement.
As a personal aside, I think that you should make a point of separating an argument you and Evan got into on a different subject and his article here. Exercising such restraint would allow you to render a much more enlightened opinion than “Evan is a putz (and not J.J. Putz, either). He
Look, I didn’t want to comment on my own entry, but there’s no doubt that a lot of ifs go into any season for any team. Furthermore, the fact that Lisa is a woman means nothing to me. What does mean something to me is the fact that she continually bashes everything this team has done for the past few months. I for one am trying to gear up for a interesting season of Astros baseball. If this small circle of pessimists wants to do otherwise that’s fine. The statistics I used are conservative in their estimation. I didn’t say Ty Wigginton would hit 30 home runs like some on ESPN or RotoWorld have. I didn’t try to make the assertion that Wandy would win 15 games and have an ERA below 4.00. Rather I sought to give everyone a fair shake- no matter how they got here. I feel that Lisa casts a negative light on certain Astros because they’re here as the result of trades that sent her favorite players elsewhere.
I’m an Astros fan: I didn’t get all that attached to Eric Bruntlett, Adam Everett or Luke Scott because I understand that baseball is a business, and as such, players will be moved when others of higher utility can be had.
As for the comments by JDolla$, I agree that they will finish fourth in the division with a record around .500. I never said they’d win the division, or the wild card or even compete for either. My preview sprinkled in a little more light hearted-ness than Lisa usually gives, and that was what I wanted. I understood that she has a few loyal readers that always post, and as such, I would not be received warmly. That’s fine. I could argue baseball till the chickens come to roost. However, I’d rather be as optimistic as possible for as long as possible. I mean, why the hell not? Why even be a fan if you can’t have somewhat high aspirations for your squad?
Lisa does the necessary work to write her entries and be an educated fan, no doubt. I never insinuated she she didn’t. I was frustrated with her takes, and still very much am. I may even be more frustrated with her. As for me, I just can’t sit here and agree with her bah humbug, looking to the past, down in the dumps attitude about this team. Last I checked the 1927 Yankees weren’t inserted in the NL Central for this season. We’ve got a shot. It may be a Popsicle’s chance in Hell, but it’s better than none at all. We should all be able to concede that this will be an interesting year for the Astros.
Stephen:
What? Read the quoted excepts from Evan. And, no, I DO think Evan is a putz.
JDolla$,
Do what?
Its nice to read something a little more opptomistic but really its funner arguing with Lisa.
stephen,
your question – what would i have done if i had been ed wade – is a very reasonable one.
problem is that i have NO idea what his marching orders from drayton and tal smith were, or even how much freedom he had.
i’ve said this i don’t know HOW many times – IF wade was ordered to get rid of lamb, everett, scott, lidge, qualls, burke, or even albers and he was ordered to get tejada and a new closer and bullpen, well then, i have no serious complaints with what he did given his marching orders
again, GIVEN HIS MARCHING ORDERS
or do you specifically mean IF i was wade and was NOT given any directions and had a free hand?
- also, most projection systems, like pecota, gave a range.
Yes, if you were free, what would you have done? Who would you have targeted?
COULD they have a winning / playoff season? sure. is it likely? no. the # just don’t add up. every projection systems have them sucking. they need a surprisingly good year from SEVERAL pitchers to make it.
Many of us agree that Houston is a middle tier team — could be good if pitching holds up and no one gets hurt, the defense is better than we fear, and the hitting is as good as we hope.
Lisa has her perspective and I’ve argued that things are perhaps not as bleak as she paints. I will point out, though, that Lisa has been consistent in her view that Woody had to go and Geary and Wright should make the team. In fact, that’s what happened, to the surprise of quite a few people. I suspect Lisa is somewhat pleased to see that, even if she hasn’t expressed it clearly.
I just provide this to make the point that while Lisa may seem negative in her style, she is making constructive observations that are grounded in reality.
And while I’ve argued that things may be okay this year, I have to say that Bourn going 2 for his last thirty-something at bats with one walk and eight Ks is really depressing. And having Kaz as the #2 hitter is even more worrisome.
And I cringe when I think of the sieve of defense on the left side of our team. Carlos, Miggy and Wiggy give statuesque a whole new meaning.
Let’s just see how April and May go. This sure will be mroe fun once there are real games to watch.
Hmmm… I came to see what Lisa had to say on the eve of opening day and run into this.
Interesting. Oh, and Evan? Two things unrelated to your actual opinions on the Astros.
One: Sex and Gender mean the same thing in this context. Unless for some reason you are speculating on something that REALLY has nothing to do with baseball.
Two: Lisa has this blog, not by the grace of God, but because she has proven to be a damn fine writer and shown fine insight into the Houston Astros over a number of years. She has fans all over the country, including a few bloggers from San Diego who know and respect her.
Good luck to the ‘Stros this year. Well, not tomorrow… but later this year *grin*
Okay, wait… I can’t leave without saying this. If you think the first honest speech by a politician about race relations in this country in over forty years was “empty”, I have no real belief that I can trust your baseball analysis. It seems apparent that your mind is made up about things before you actually listen…
i think evan should start his own blog
First, Rich Campbell,pulllllleeeeaaaasssseee don’t bring race into this blog. I can get that garbage on Fox Sports or MSN feedback. Don’t want to taint Lisa’s great column with garbage. As far as Evan goes, I wish so badly you were right. I raised my youngest son to be a die-hard ‘stros fan and now I have created a monster. He is insanely optimistic about the ‘stros chances and feels I am a traitor for having my doubts. Pitching,
Pitching, Pitching. ‘Fraid Lisa is right, we’re toast.
It will probably be an interesting year to say the least. What did Yogi say? “It ain’t over till it’s over”,
On a positive note, I watched Chris Sampson yesterday in the bullpen at Corpus and he looked ready. He got tuned up with a long ball on the first pitch to Reggie Abercrombie, but this is windsurfing country and the fence is short. A 25 knot wind blowing out toward left field is one of our game standards during the spring day games.
I still think we are going to give up a lot of runs with our new SS I hope his offense makes up for lost runs. Tommy Manzella is fun to watch in the field ,very smooth glove. In a couple of years when Miggy is gone he could be the new left side defensive plug we will be missing by then.
Play Ball
Go Astros
Here is a copy of website account of the game, I was busy trying the beers out and bouncing around to different seats to try to find my favorite seat.
CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas
Man, lots of good comments….
Mr. Campbell:
It is my understanding that gender is associated with societal differences (roles/characteristics in the home and in the public sphere) between the sexes, while sex in and of itself refers strictly to the biological differences between males and females. I don’t really think that it’s relevant here though. Honestly, it could matter less to me that Lisa is a woman. I’m 22 years old, was raised by a single mom and have no discernible vestiges of traditional sexism in my life. However, if Lisa takes offense to that disclaimer that I put in my initial comment to her, I apologize. That was not my intent. I will not apologize for anything else that I said, however.
Mr. Schramm:
If you’re interested, go to Hardballtimes.com, and look up the defensive abilities of Ty Wigginton. Using their criteria, he is as proficient a defender as David Wright. Admittedly, I have not done much research into how they compiled their data, etc, but it is a reputable site nonetheless. I will not argue with your assessment of Miggy and Carlos. They are poor defenders.
Amaar:
Thanks for the kind words! A friend and I actually did start an ill-fated blog attempt right around a year ago. But, then finals came up, summer jobs and life in general hit both of us in the face. I give anyone who maintains a good blog a lot of credit.
Steve Hoxworth:
I don’t think I ever said in my post what I think the Astros record will be. I was realistic in all my projections, as I got them via PECOTA, via BaseballProspectus. So, they are inherently conservative. Note how short my starting pitching portion was….that was for a reason. I don’t want to go back and specifically cite things I said, but I did at the outset say balance was key for this team. We have incredibly weak starting pitching, so to compensate, Mr. Wade went out and revamped our bullpen.
Is that strategy going to work? Probably not enough to win more than 80, 82 games tops. Stros fans know what strong starting pitching gets you, we also know what weak starting pitching gets you (it’s Lima time, baby). All I know is that Rick White and his brethren will not be with the team this year. That is cause for optimism in and of itself.
Steve (dude who left last comment):
Good to hear that Sampy is ready to roll…. I’ve heard about Manzella’s smooth play in the field. Some (me and a buddy of mine) have hoped that Kaz would go away somehow, and let Tommy come up and provide some solid D in the infield.
After going to school in Georgetown, driving up to Hutto/Round Rock for games was easy and inexpensive. The atmosphere is perfect. Three bucks for an OF ticket. Bring a blanket lay in the grass, eat cheap ‘dogs and watch some up and comers. Hopefully, I can make it out to Corpus in the near future to take in a game! Our main (best) prospects play for Hooks, from what I hear, so that is an added incentive for going.
i want to thank everyone for their comments and those of you who sent private emails to me instead of posting comments.
several things -
i’ve been writing this blog for almost 4 years now. i TRY to call em as i see em – sometimes it’s good, sometimes it’s bad. as i said to evan, being a fan of a team does NOT mean that you have to ignore its deficiencies and look only at its positives and imagine it to be a winner. a fan loves its team through good times and bad.
IF i had said that i would prefer to watch baseball as it was played in the early 80s – low scoring, lots of stolen bases, great pitching/defense (which i do) it certainly doesn’t mean i don’t love baseball. you have to accept whatever you love with its virtues AND flaws.
and evan,
when you preface a comment with disclaimers, those disclaimers take on a significance. ask your mother if you disbelieve me…
and by the way, i welcome all reports about our minor leaguers and as long as reports are free from bad language and ad hominem attacks, i will post them during the season.
Evan,
Bad news in corpus, beer went from $4.00 to $5.50, but it is cold and in a bottle. No Dome Foam.
tickets are $4 on the berm and $9 for a seat. when I go alone, I try all of the areas. There is not a bad seat in the house and all refreshments are located where you can keep an eye on the game. Radio in the restrooms to keep up with it too. The Ryan/Sandberg team definetly built a class stadium here in our little redneck riviera city.
GO HOOKS
“Carry zeroes over till they add up.”
“The scare crow is only scaring himself.”
Lisa’s right those moves desreved bashing. Lisa gets accused of pessimism- a supposed predilection towards negativity.
What remains unrebutted are her claims that our infield defense is much worse, Bourn has certain offensive issues and a low ceiling, and the state of the rotation is moribund. NONE of these calims can reasonably be denied.
Furthermore, this is not a big offense b/c of the lineup’s OBP issues. Tal Smith’s ignorance of that ever important stat will be the team’s undoing.
Memo: Scott was more productive in his PA than Tejad in ’07.
BTW, Wiggy is anything but efficient. Doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for great average. No glove. Sole asset: good power.
Kevin:
How is pessimism not inherently negative? There are some things that I can’t refute: nobody knows enough about Bourn to say anything yet, we door have a poor defense. Sue me. I just wanted to point out some things Lisa has failed to. Wiggy will have an OBP of above .345. Speaking of players with low ceilings…Luke Scott. It’s just odd to me, for people to get behind average players like Scott, Everett, Ensberg…what is it about these guys that you, Lisa and JDolla like so much? I mention those three because you all are the only people that have expressed outright support for them. The past two years with them have yielded no success.
I understand that I came into your neighborhood, started playing on your jungle gym, and teased your sister a little bit. It’s all in the spirit of fun. The atmosphere of this blog community is so negative. I don’t know why that is. Isn’t sports supposed to be fun? Lighthearted, even? Some of you acted like I called Lisa every name in the book, and then started talking about her momma. I criticized her. It’s my prerogative to do so. She put her opinions out there. Most of the comments about what I wrote were either neutral or somewhat positive. That’s cool. Some of you though reacted with anger, which I don’t get. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. We can all enjoy our 65 win ballclub.
And finally, Lisa: I appreciate you speaking sarcastically about my mother. Very mature. As much as you bring up your family, I could have done the same to you. I’m assuming you’re around 30 years old, and I would expect someone your age to not go that direction in your arguments. Oh well.
Also, you act as if I didn’t criticize the team at all in my assessment. Go back and read it again. Also, I must emphasize that I didn’t talk about a predicted record at all in the article. I gave the young guys a shot, and called the old dudes for what they are. Once again- does it really matter in the long run? A team’s fortunes can be turned around with 2 good drafts. This will be an interesting season no matter what- I think we can all agree on that.
Evan, I read Lisa’s comment and did not interpret disrespect. You’re getting a bit thin skinned for blog banter.
As for Scott, Everett, and Ensberg, well, y’know, number don’t tell the entire story of baseball — otherwise, we could stuff them into 100,000 simulations and see who wins. But that’s not what happens; that’s why they play the game on grass and dirt instead of on an Intel chip.
Adam Everett is the most effortless, smooth fielding guy Houston’s ever had, and he’s one of the best defensive infielders of this era. I don’t care what the numbers say, he is. Further, you can’t quantify his value. Oh sure, everyone tries, but they fail. Why?
Because numbers don’t take into account the fact that Everett gives right handed pitchers confidence to throw ground balls to short instead of trying to strike guys out, thereby shortening innings, allowing pitchers to go deeper into games, saving the bullpen, keeping the defense on its toes so they make fewer mental and physical mistakes, cutting down the number of pitches thrown and saving arms for later in the year, and…I could go on, but the number of non-quantified and poorly quantified advantages of a wide ranging and smooth infielder are simply not calculated properly by the metrics guys.
It would be fascinating to see the team play 162 games with Everett at short and the same 162 games with Miggy at short and see what happens. But of course we can’t do that. My suspicion is that Everett is more valuable than people think, even taking into account his .250 avg.
As for Scott and Mo, well, we’ve been teased into thinking that they have very high ceilings and just never given the chance to work through their slumps and retun to brilliance (in Mo’s case) or deliver consistent brilliance (in Luke’s case).
Perhaps we’ll see how they do with their new teams. Baseball’s always interesting; never dull. That’s for sure.
We shall see, indeed. My only point is with Adam Everett is thus: he is a superb defensive player. Some say the best SS over the past 2-3 years. However, we can use your logic to say that the fact that Adam Everett is also a hitter in the lineup puts more pressure on the guys in front of him to get something going, or else Adam and Brad will stall another rally. You can’t quantify that, either. Or how many times did our starters go to the mound, with so much pressure on them to pitch gems every time out, because they knew our offense wasn’t going to give them that much to work with. In ’05 Roger Clemens was 13-8…with a 1.87 ERA. How he didn’t win 20-25 games that year is beyond me. Also, it’s not like we had a good defense when we went to the World Series and were competing for the playoffs. Everett was a standout, and Beltran was great when he was here, but it’d be less than factual to say anyone else was a good defender. Even Brad has been slipping badly the past few years. There are two sides to every story, and I think we’ve reached the point in this discussion that that is an inescapable fact.
Like I said at the top of my article, balance is key. I don’t think we’ll win 90, but I dont think we’ll lose 90 either. The team as it was last October 1st would not have had trouble competing just as much as this team now. We’d seen quite a bit out of Burke, Ensberg, Albers, and Lidge. These guys weren’t scrubs, but they sure weren’t blue chippers. The demise of this team, is there is to be a demise, did not occur in the winter of ’07, rather, it probably occurred when Gerry Hunsicker left in 2003.
Evan and I got the band back together:
http://root4thegoodguys.blogspot.com/
A slightly tweaked version of what Evan posted, come yell at us over there.
**i love you all so much**
Stephen
evan,
“The demise of this team, is there is to be a demise, did not occur in the winter of
evan
- patiently
first of all, i am not that freaking old.
second, i am HARDLY disrespecting your mother. i am assuming you might could respect what SHE has to say. i suggest you ask HER how she would feel being addressed in the manner that you addressed ME. or you might could ask any other female human being who is working hard at any job how SHE would feel IF you first prefaced any critical remark by saying you were not judging her by her gender, sex or socio-economic status.
sometimes people say something – as you did to me – without thinking how it sounds to the person to whom you are speaking
I dont doubt there’s quite a bit we can agree on. Also, I will say for the last time: I do not care that you are a woman. Honestly. That never entered into the calculus of my decision making concerning you and your blogging. You keep bringing that up. I never said anything vaguely sexist to you. I never said a word about you personally that I can think of.
Figures Stephen and Evan are blog buddies. Jeez. That explains a lot.
Yeah, that we’re the balls.
Hahaha. JDolla give it up brosef. Everyone else has. It’s over. Who cares, at this point? What are we even arguing about? Your comments are so long, I haven’t read the past 3 or 4. I won’t respond to your comment that neither Stephen or I write well. Come on, bud. I’m no George Will, but nobody has ever accused me of being a bad writer. You may not like my facts, or my reasoning, but stylistically, and otherwise my writing is extremely competent. I wouldn’t have graduated from college and been accepted to law school if I wasn’t at least good at putting my thoughts on paper.
I am oh so tempted to note that you are displaying your ignorance by saying that neither us are good at arguing….but that would just continue this pissing match that we’ve gotten into. Let’s just end this. In the grand scheme of things, our little feud is frivolous with a capital F.
I will respond to your assertion that I only brought up the past in my article. I was asked to write a 2008 preview. The only way I know to write a preview of anything is to take past performance and gauge that against present and near future conditions. So I did that. Also, I specifically noted that Miguel Tejada, Carlos Lee, Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum have their best years behind them. I was completely against the signing of Kaz Matsui and expressed my thoughts as such. Sure, I was optimistic overall. But it would have been overkill for me to arrive at the same conclusions, and utilize the same logic as Lisa. I was asked to write the preview because Lisa assumed (correctly) that I had a different viewpoint that she does.
“I will respond to your assertion that I only brought up the past in my article. I was asked to write a 2008 preview.”
Well, you already admitted that you didn’t read what I posted, and this just proves it as you’ve again conflated two different points into one. Great work, lawyerman! As you say, “hahaha.”
Actually, you are a much better writer than Stephen appears to be, although there are some sections in that long “preview” of yours (that Lisa posted) that aren’t so great. But writing is more than usage; it’s also diction, rhetoric and logic. In those areas you show profound blind spots and sophistic tendencies. But hey, you want to be a lawyer, so that’s good!
I don’t imagine anyone will have much sympathy for a guy, whether he’s a lawyer wannabe or not, who only has the time for potshots and unreasoned attacks, but can’t be bothered to read detailed, reasoned retorts in protest of those attacks. But I guess that’s all we can expect of the lawyering profession nowadays, eh?
Typical college student brashness with little actual talent (or even logic) to back it up. I looked at the blog and found it neither “intelligent” nor “witty.” I guess if that’s what you mean, then yeah, you guys are definitely “the balls.”
JDolla,
I think you’re displaying….I don’t really want to speculate about your lot in life, but I still wonder why you’re just so bitter against Stephen and I. It speaks volumes of someone who is probably a grown man, who attacks some college aged dudes repeatedly. Give it up. He and I are both good writers and are both pretty sharp guys. We know baseball as well as just about anyone. We’ve each received positive feedback about the blog, actually, quite a bit. So, ultimately what you say about it is fine. Keep going back to see how “talent-less” we are.
Oh JDolla$,
What I got from that, is the fact that you’ve still yet to come to terms that I out logic-ed you earlier in these comments when you actually sided with Evan. Clearly you’ve got a lot of anger in your heart and you’re just spewing it. It’s cool. I mean you just must have your drawers in a real twist over something more than just blog banter and I hope that you get the root of that issue. In the mean time, I am going to just brush my shoulder off and keep working some magic.
Love,
Stephen
Evan:
I think you should go back to your original comment to me, Evan, where you claimed that I was “once again” showing my ignorance. That was quite telling in that I’ve never once had an interchange with you, and since I rarely post on these boards, I don’t know where I have displayed my ignorance to you the first time. Either way, you threw down the gauntlet, my friend.
But I meant what I said – I’m not impressed with your blog or your comments on Lisa’s blog.
You repeatedly show lapses in logic and then you try to bully your way around those mistakes by asserting your ego. For instance, see how you changed the subject to the past when I was clearly talking about the future of the Rangers as opposed to the Astros. When this was pointed out to you, your defense was ad hominem – I must be some BMW driving yuppie who lives in a “cookie cutter house.” I don’t know what that has to do with the Rangers or Astros, but again, you brought it up.
Look at this paragraph by you, addressed to Lisa:
Stephen: This is typical of you:
“What I got from that, is the fact that you
Evan:
Should be “not” mentioning the obvious question marks guys like Villareal and Valverde bring to the table…
I read this blog about once a week and bang it out all in one quick sitting. I have been doing this for years. Mostly I enjoy the read. Living out of state now I will take anything Astros related. I am in Giants territory and have never really been much of a fan. Atleast I dont have to hear about Barriod all day anymore.
Remeber this folks – Lisa is just a fan with a blog. She has no pull or official affiliation with the Astros anymore than you or I – They thing about uber fans and especially ones that put their opinions out on the web in public is when reading you get their opinions, feelings, biasness to certain players, favorites and dislikes. It her blog. Anyone can start one for FREE – My opinion is you have to sift thru it all to find a nugget every now and then. Personally I feel Lisa’s un-ending love and backing of Wandy and Adam Everett, regardless of their ability and performance and not accepting facts lets you know that this is just another fans web blog with a computer and some time to spare.
JDolla$ how did you not side with Evan? He and I have both claimed that the ‘Stros will probably be about .500 team, which you said. He was responding to the fact that Lisa in recent weeks has made it seem like this team will finish worst than last year, mainly as the result of the wheelings and dealings over the off-season. In your first comment, you said the Astros would finish about 81-81, which, if my inferior mind can do the math correctly is .500, or 1/2, or .5, or 50%. So I am at a loss to see how you didn’t side with Evan. Perhaps not for his analysis of the team, but in the end didn’t you take his view (.500). If Evan’s essential goal of the post was to make a case for the fact that there are enough positive possibilities to suggest a .500 team is reasonable, and you in your won judgements feel the same way, haven’t you sided with Evan and I?
Further, I think my assertions that you are obviously upset about something more than just Evan writing a differing take about the Astors to suggest .500 is valid. You yourself claim your anger stems from Evan’s first attack against you. There you go, you have a underlying anger towards Evan, because without provocation on your part, he called you ignorant.
At this point, I am failing to see my ad hominem usage. Perhaps I could have clarified things more, but I think that its very valid for me to say that you agreed with Evan’s ultimate conclusion over the pessimism that had been persistent on this blog all spring. Further, my assertion that you had your drawers in a twist, also appears valid, and supported by evidence given that you are still smarting from Evan’s, perhaps, unprovoked attack on your intelligence. Which is probably warranted. Evan and myself can be dicks just as easily as the next guy. However, I think if you’d be willing to look past your anger for just a little bit you might be able to concede some ground.
–Stephen
Stephen:
To quote Lisa:
sigh…
Look, my original comment was that the future of this team looks very bleak, and that their pitching is going to be a pretty substantial problem this season, and that they don’t even have any chips left in the minors to go out and trade for anyone. To that, Evan said that I was “showing my ignorance.” Why? Because I happen to live in Dallas, and the Rangers are clearly an example of a more poorly run franchise, right? [Note the great logic there] Why? Because of the past, that’s why. And when I called him out on this obvious, second gaffe in logic, he then turns to the ad hominem stuff about where I live, what I drive, etc. etc.
That’s where you come in. You then say that we’re talking about the same thing, blah blah blah. Why do you make this claim? Because you read another post that I made on a totally different topic, and use that as evidence that we essentially agree. But we don’t agree, Stephen. I said that the Astros will suck for years to come, and I gave reasons for it. I also gave reasons why the Rangers will be good in upcoming years. Evan openly disagreed with both those claims, Stephen, and he never conceded anything. Yet, in his defense, all Evan could do was keep bringing up the past, which is a red herring.
So your claim of “out-logic” (whatever that means) is just groundless. All you did was change the subject, which you and he both seem to like doing a lot, and then you hit me with the ad hominem attacks, too. Whether I have a rage building inside of me about Evan is immaterial to the main point, and because it is an attack aimed at my person instead of what I’m arguing about, it is by definition ad hominem.
It’s not that I’m unwilling to concede ground, it’s just that I’m unwilling to proclaim you and Evan as great thinkers and writers, when all the evidence I’ve seen from both you guys is that you don’t write particularly well, you use fallacious reasoning, and you turn to sophistical attacks whenever you get called out for being ridiculous. And I do think your blog is weak, and I do think that your claim of being “intelligent” and “witty” (whether that’s meant to be tongue-in-cheek or not) is baseless, considering all these reasons and all the other reasons I’ve provided on these boards.
Period.
BTW, I hope neither of you guys are going to be trial lawyers, because you both really suck at arguing.
One more thing, and then I’ll let this rest.
I love it when a guy who proclaims to be an intelligent college graduate and who loves to brag in public about how he got accepted into law school tries to weasel out of an argument he’s losing by saying “I’m not even reading your posts anymore.”
That’s the equivalent of a 6 year old sticking his fingers in his ears and shouting, “la la la la la la I’m not listening la la la la.”
If you want adults to take you seriously, then you have to give them reason to do so.
JDolla$,
How is that the equivilant of a six year old? Does it not prove that there are proper aptitude for both reasoning and writing? Further, though we were commenting on this post: “That
“Does it not prove that there are proper aptitude for both reasoning and writing?”
Yeah, I was wrong – that’s brilliant prose. I apologize.
JDolla,
I wasn’t aware that I ever bragged that I got accepted into law school. I mentioned it as you were attacking my ability to write competently. It was brought up once, and only when you began re-attacking me on a personal level. The fact of the matter is that you seem to have much more time and I guess desire to argue. I skim read for my name in your last post I responded to.
Feel free to critique my writing. I could really care less. Maybe once I reach your age, I’ll be as good a writer as you. Unfortunately, I’m not a grown ass man yet, and I’m prone to being illogical at times.
Finally, and I do mean finally, if you can succinctly tell me what we’re arguing about, I’ll bite and we can continue
yelling at each other.
“and I
OK boys
the point is that use of good manners at all times, even when disagreeing with someone, is an infinitely more successful tactic than its opposite.
somewhat analogous to the situation which arises when your woman asks you if she looks fat in the blue dress and you have a choice of saying
1 – jeezus gawd woman, you look worse than mo nique tryin to squeeze into a size 4
which might could actually be true, but then you gotta deal with having your woman cry, then tell you “nothing” is wrong, then getting a headache, then when you tell her she should just take some tylenol, she says FINE!!!!!!!!!
or saying
2 – well, it’s just you look SOOOOOO hot in the blue dress
and, uh, reaping the benefits
you see what i’m sayin here
wow – that was really a great piece written by Evan. The evaluations are dead on. Good Job. Now go sign yourself up for your own blog and be sure to email me the link – Glennbo
Lisa, noted.
Glennbo:
I do not know your email address but here’s the link to Stephen’s and my blog:
http://root4thegoodguys.blogspot.com/
Thanks for the kind words. We’ll be doing a little running commentary during the game tonight, and will come out with a new post about every ten games. In between, we’ll do game commentaries/general baseball commentaries throughout the week. Hope you enjoy.
-Evan