Seth Stohs writes a blog called Seth Speaks, which is mostly about the Minnesota sports teams. However, today, he has written a list of 20 guys who qualify as ML rookies and he has ranked them in order of the impact he thinks they will actually HAVE this year, not by how much “potential” (oh LORD I hate that word) they have if they had an ideal situation to come into.
Check it out.
#20 – Chase Headly, age 23, 3B, Padres
#19 – Carlos Gonzalez, age 22, OF, A’s
#18 – Brandon Wood, age 22, 3B, Angels
#17 – Brandon Jones, age 24, OF, Braves
#16 – Cameron Maybin, age 20, OF, Marlins
#15 – Ben Francisco, age 26, OF, Indians
#14 – Wladamir Balentien, age 23, Mariners
#13 – Joey Votto, age 24, 1B, Reds
#12 – Andy LaRoche, age 24, 3B, Dodgers
#11 – Ryan Sweeney, age 22, OF, A’s
#10 – Ian Stewart, age 22, 2B/3B, Rockies
# 9 – Steve Pearce, age 24, 1B/OF, Pirates
# 8 – Daric Barton, age 22, 1B, A’s
# 7 – Geovany Soto, age 24, C, Cubs
# 6 – Jay Bruce, age 20, OF, Reds
# 5 – JR Towles, age 23, C, Astros
# 4 – Colby Rasmus, age 21, OF, Cardinals
# 3 – Jacoby Ellsbury, age 24, OF, Red Sox
# 2 – Kosuke Fukudome, age 30, OF, Cubs
# 1 – Evan Longoria, age 22, OF Devil Rays
I think his ranking order is pretty good, except for Cameron Maybin because the Marlins ARE going to play him in center. Period, no ifs, ands or buts – unless he gets hurt before the season starts. The Marlins are all about playing cheapest and Maybin is dirt cheap.
Also, I would bet that Brandon Jones starts in left for the Braves because their other options are, um, not good.
JR Towles: There isn’t any competition there, at least I should say that management has told the media this. However, if Towles completely sucks/tanks, then I would guess that IF he is sent back to AAA, and that is a very big “if”, then Ausmus will be the main catcher and some other guy will be backup – probably Humberto Quintero, who, in my opinion, is not very good. I’m not expecting a lot from Towles’ bat, but I would be satisfied if he had the stats from Biggio’s first full year: .257/.336/.402 – which was, by the way, a 114 OPS+ back then; I wouldn’t be surprised, though, or even disappointed if it was more like Biggio’s rookie year: .211/.254/.350. The guy only had a couple games at AAA and he isn’t Biggio, at least that I know of.
Then again, predicting how things will go with a completely new manager and GM is tough. I know that McLane refuses to rebuild and expects to “compete” every year, but this isn’t so with the Pirates and this is why I am not sure about Pearce. The Pirates organization is the dumbest in the NL, no question. (I mean in terms of creating teams that will win, not in terms of making 20-35 mill a year in profit.) I don’t know why they insist on moving players all over the place and refusing to play the few good ones they have in any sort of consistant manner. Pearce won’t displace either Adam LaRoche or Nady unless either is hurt or doesn’t hit at ALL. They also have Nate McLouth, but the stupid Pirates don’t seem to realize how GOOD he is. What can I say. It amazes me that the Pirates still have any fans at ALL, or that the owners have not yet been lynched.
Therefore, I would guess that IF Pearce makes the majors he’ll be a bench guy, or they’ll put him at third or something else stupid. Same with the Reds and Joey Votto/Jay Bruce – they will not take Hatteberg off first and Ryan Freel out of center unless they get hurt or stop hitting.
It will be VERY interesting to see how the Rockies handle the Atkins/Stewart problem. There is talk about seeing if Stewart can play second, but some guys can’t handle the other side of the diamond. Me, if I was running the Rockies, I would have checked out Stewart at second last year, or seen what I could get in trade for either Stewart or Atkins because a whole LOT of organizations need a decent third baseman. Actually, I would have tried to get Noah Lowry/Matt Cain from the Giants because their only choice is Kevin Frandsen (shudder) but hey, it’s not my team…
Now
for something completely different – Astros news!!! All yall know I was NOT happy about the team acquiring a known and unrepentant steroid user in Miguel Tejada. From Justice’s column this morning:
“…Waxman and ranking member Tom Davis have asked the Attorney General to investigate Tejada because the Mitchell Report implicated Tejada in the use of steroids.
Tejada told the Committee that he never used illegal performance-enhancing drugs and that he had no knowledge of other players using or even talking about steroids, Waxman said. The Mitchell report, however, directly contradicts key elements of Mr. Tejadaís testimony.”
Remember Rafe Palmeiro had stated that Tejada had injected him with B-12 and everyone chose to throw ALL the poopoo at Palmeiro and none at Tejada, who said something like – what is a steroid? What goes around comes around. Tejada, of course, is now in the Dominican Republic playing winter ball, where it is ostensibly a LOT easier to get hold of, um, Vitamin B-12 (ahem) than it is here. Of course, Congress can’t extradite Tejada to speak about something he can’t be arrested for, but it sure will be interesting to see where the “investigation” goes.
Me, I want to see what all the Astros fans, who have been spitting on Clemens, but, um, silent about Tejada, are going to say NOW. After all, Clemens’ “use” is based solely on a he said/he said sort of thing, but there are two checks that Tejada wrote to his dealer for his drugs and as far as I’m concerned, that is actual EVIDENCE instead of unprovable accusations.
Tags: Houston Astros, MLB
There is no doubt Towles will have a huge impact. I’d say being a catcher he will have the biggest impact out of all rookies. I hope its a good impact.
Everyone seems to like him, I’m excited to see what he does. His importance has been overshadowed by all the trades and “other baseball” topics.
I read somewhere that they did some gene theropy on Towles trying to inject him with some of Biggio’s genes. Is that against MLB rules?
me i am excited about towles too. i like watching my team’s OWN rooks.
and i posted those lines from biggio’s start because i am hoping that fans will remember that there are plenty of hall of famers who don’t start out like pujols.
as for injecting with biggio’s genes, well, ida know bout that – i think every person has to be his/her own individual self. and biggio was a man like every other man and when it comes to men you gotta take the good with the bad, as my mama always sez, and biggio had plenty of bad about him too.
i HOPEHOPEHOPE that they will not send towles back down, even if he starts out badly, and let him learn to play in the majors, even if he has a terrible year this year. but i worry about this because i am remembering how the club/fans treated scott and burke…
I’ll save this list for my fantasy baseball draft. Last year my pick ups of Hunter Pence and Ryan Braun helped a lot. I think Ellsbury the best on the list that I have seen.
Longoria’s legit. He could contend for AL Rookie of the Year, and should be an anchor in the Rays lineup for years to come.
Really great skillset as a hitter. He bring good patience, power and maturity to the table. When I did his prospect breakdown for my “Tampa Bay Top 10″ I was impressed by all the numbers that he put up.
Ellsbury and Longoria are tops. 6 years down the road they’ll be making more money than Towles. They both stand a chances to win ROY, it is very unlikely Towles competes for it.
Still I think Towles has a much more important job being a catcher, having a hand in every pitch 4 out of 5 days.
I don’t think we’ll see Towles in the minors. There is no one that you could replace him with that would be even league average. If anything I think you would see Ausmus become the number one and Towles the back up.
Come on Lisa…. the gene think was a joke. That way he could be in the spot light too.
I like watching my team’s rookies, too, although in the past few years it’s been a little disappointing. Jason Lane was exciting his first few late-season callups, and it was fun to imagine how Jason Hirsh would pan out. Burke was snakebit with this team, and I had to watch his years through clenched teeth (eyeteeth).
Towles was so much fun at the end of last season, especially in that throwaway game when he totalled 8 RBIs. It’s interesting no one has accused him of bulking up with a little extra “B-12,” just for one game. Maybe Ausmus can teach him about hitting game-tying home runs with two outs in the bottom of the ninth in a league division series game.
Sorry about the NYTimes registration on the link on #6. Use the following (courtesy of BugMeNot) for both the Username and Password, and you’ll get in: downwithprereg
good stuff wags. i’d forgotten a lot of the details. it was a great game.
joel
-grinning
yeh i know but i love to tease you.
i’m glad you always come here and comment. you always make me smile/laugh
- i REALLY hope that towles spends the entire year in the majors, learning to catch/hit and that they don’t give up on him after a few weeks like they did with just about every other prospect on the astros the last 2 years.
wags,
oh how i LOVED that homer. one of my all time favorites and just because it came from a guy who hardly ever hits homers. i just wish it had been the game winner.
ed,
i’m always careful about those pre-season lists because i am never sure that the team will actually use good prospects/rookies or give em a decent chance.
eric,
yeh, everyone sez longoria is legit. we’ll have to see because youneverknow – after all look at sean burroughs…
I also hope the Pirates don’t do something stupid with Steve Pearce. He had a wildly outstanding 2007 season — and now he has to prove that 2007 was not a fluke. If 2008 begins where 2007 left off, Pearce should be up to the Pirates by mid season. Having seen him here in Indy, I suspect that once he gets to Pittsburgh, he will be able handle anything that comes along. If he’s getting the hits and knocking in the runs, he’ll be in the lineup. (Please, Pirates, don’t be so dumb as to keep this guy on the bench!)
aaah you got me lisa
Looks like the Rangers are going to be the BIIIIGGGG winners this winter – they are about to sign one JASON JENNINGS! ! ! ! !
Now that’s cause for excitement!
JD -
like the old song goes -
i’m soooo excited
and i can’t deny it
i’m about to fall asleep
and i just can’t hide it…
jason picked a tough stadium for a comeback.
but we KNEW he wasn’t coming back here and as for me, i’m relieved we won’t be stuck with the remains of jon lieber
You know about 3 years ago I heard a guy on the radio say that we shouldn’t get are pannies in wade when the Astros start trading all their minor league pitching.
As far as I know they haven’t traded away one #1 or #2 guy. Those are the only ones that hold any value.
So what ever you can get for the other types of pitchers I’d say is a good gamble.
Inretrospect they got jacked up with the Jennings trade. I still think it was a necessary trade. His numbers pointed to a solid pitcher.
As far as the minor league system. It’s sucked for the last couple years anyways. I’m impressed with the juice Wade was able to squeeze out of it. Valverde, Villareal, Bourn, Tejada. We should call HIM the Juice Box.
I wasn’t as high on Taveras as some folks are, but that trade (Jennings for Taveras, Hirsch and Bucholtz (sp?) was an example of how the ‘Stros have been trading away all their pitching depth in 2, 3, or 4 for 1 deals the past two years. They’re minor league system has become it’s own punch line. And now what do the ‘Stros have to show for the Jennings deal? SQUAT!
Have a look at Hirsch’s and Bucholtz’s stats from last year. They were used sparingly by the Rocks – each getting about 100 IP, and they both had ERAs under 5.00 (Bucholtz was only around 4.20), and each had a WHIP around 1.35 – which is pretty good. Those are #4 numbers, with the potential for #3 – both those guys. So once again, the Astros traded a starting CF and two #3/#4 pitchers for one player – a supposed #2 starter who was injured all year, and then left via FA.
Smart. Really smart.
Yup thats the way baseball goes.
No, that’s the way Astros baseball goes. I don’t see winning teams mortgaging their future in 5 three-for-one trades over the course of two seasons.
3′s and 4′s aren’t a teams future.
No team, except for Boston and NY has a staff made up of #1′s and #2′s. That’s ludicrous. And besides, when 41 year old Woody starts running out of gas in July from the heat, or starts pulling muscles like old dudes do, or when Backe blows out his arm again, whom do the Astros have to bring up as viable options to start? No one, that’s who. Guys like Hirsch and Bucholtz put up fine numbers the past season – actually, both of them had better numbers than Woody, if you come to think about it. You don’t just dump guys because they aren’t Bedards or Santanas. There are only a handful of those kinds of dominant aces around, but anyone who can give you a decent amount of innings with an era under 5.00 and a whip under 1.35 is someone you should keep.
And on top of that, they get rid of Albers and their top pitching prospect, Patton. That’s just stupid management. Look around – it’s not for no reason that everyone is laughing at the Astros depth & farm system, pointing out that they’re in for a world of hurt after this season for about the next 3 years at least.
ok. i can give you a hug if it will make you feel better.
getting rid of the top of your junk pile doesn’t make you any crapier than you already were. they haven’t had a farm in a while, that didn’t happen this winter. or last.
your right they need depth.
i’ll give you my opinion. the astros will field a better team opening day than the last day of september.
anyways were way off the point. the jennings trade. it worked out for the worse. trades are always a gamble. it sucks they lost that one. you have to try though.
i’m actually kinda glad that they traded away all the minor leaguers because it means they have no illusions that any of them were going to materially help the team. Now, it’s all on Wade to make three years of solid drafts — and then on Drayton to sign them so they can be developed. It’s all on them to rebuild the farm, or we’re well on our way to being the Pirates.
Meanwhile, let’s see what this hodgepodge of guys can do in 2008/2009/2010 while we still have Oswalt and Lance. After that, we’ll have to see what the kids start looking like.