When I first read that the Astros had claimed Josh Fields, I thought for an awful moment that they had claimed Josh Fields, the former first rounder (White Sox, 2004) who was supposed to be a Mike Schmidt/Scott Rolen Future Star!!! who got called up because he had been a first rounder and proceeded to not hit or hit for power for parts of 5 years before finally disappearing into the minors.
You see, being at the top of the prospect list does not necessarily mean that the aforementioned prospect is going to be a good major leaguer, although he will probably BE a major leaguer at some time, just because he was picked in the first round.
Our Josh Fields, who will be 28 in July (yes, he IS old beyond belief) was ALSO a first rounder – picked by the Mariners in the 08 draft after he refused to sign with the Braves after being picked the previous year in the second round. He started at AA, as a reliever – yes,a first rounder starting at reliever (see Chad Cordero, Huston Street) threw 33 innings in 09 – had a leeeeetle trouble with control, 6 walks/9 and also 9 K/9 with a low home run rate. ERA 6.38/1.65 WHIP.
Repeated AA in 2010, threw 28.1 innings, had essentially the same walks/K numbers, but had a low 6 H/9 and gave up no homers, so he lowered his ERA to 3.24 and WHIP to 1.29.
in 2011, he again started at AA, threw 26 innings, posting essentially the same numbers as the previous year only with a slightly lower ERA of 2.77 and was promoted to AAA where he threw 13 innings and gave up – are you ready for this – NINE walks/9 IP. For the first time in 2 years, he allowed homers, so both his ERA and WHIP skyrocketed.
Neveretheless, he was traded to Boston as part of the Erik Bedard trade (he hasn’t worked out real too good for anyone he’s been traded to, has he – yet ANOTHER guy who keeps getting work because, I guess, he used to be good…) He threw 17 innings for Boston’s AA club, 5.2 H/9, 1 HR/9, 5.5 BB/9 and 13 K/9.
So he split last year between AA and AAA: 44 innings at AA, in which he posted his same low hits, homers and high K numbers, but managed, for the FIRST time in his career, to lower his obscene walk rate to 3.2 K/9. At AAA, he threw 13 innings over 10 games, 8 H, no HR, TWO walks, 19 K.
Now, I DO know this is small sample size, but it looks as if he has managed to conquer his wildness without sacrificing his low hit, high K numbers. Actually, he looks better than Rhiner Cruz did last year. So we just might could, youneverknow, have found a good bullpen guy, not that we have many of them – or, I should say, ANY of them besides Wesley Wright and Mickey Storey, who is back after the Yankees decided they didn’t want him after all.
The good news/bad news, is that no team picked up Jason Stoffel, our AA closer (who we got for Jeff Keppinger, way back when) which means that either we got lucky or no other team thought he was worth picking up.
We also acquired a would-be DH, Nate Freiman, a huge righty (think Richie Sexson, not a fatso like Ken Harvey) picked in the 8th round of the 09 draft by the Padres. I know he played 1B, but you know and I know that with Jonathan Singleton and Brett Wallace, he’s not gonna be no first baseman unless Singleton can’t hit ML pitching even as well as Brett Wallace, youneverknow. He just finished AA San Antonio, which means our guiys have seen him a great deal. What is good is that he maintained his power numbers moving from the Cali league to the Texas League – he’s pretty much averaged approximately .847 OPS at each level, meaning 35 doubles/22 homers per 135 game seasons. It’s nice, but making the jump to ML pitchers from AA just ain’t easy, is it Julio Daniel Martinez?
About our 20 mill payroll team: I’ve been having these discussions with a few guys I’ve known for years, who just LUUUVVVVV prospects/young players and like rebuilding. They are always thinking about/dreaming about selling high on pretty much ANY player and getting more prospects. for a minor league that is just bursting with prospects. Well, I like the – minor league bursting with prospects – part. What I do NOT like is the other part in which your major league team has essentially only cheap players (AAAA guys, anyone decent in ears 1-3, sometimes 1-2 IF you had got him already signed to a longer term cheap contract) while you are waiting for that year when you have an el-cheapo team and somehow, everything magically Comes Together and you WIN and you have Your Core. You dream that anyone good signed an Evan Longoria contract (the one he signed right after he came up, not the last one in which they actually have to PAY him) without a no-trade, so you can play churn the players. Like Billy Beane.
Well, almost like Billy Beane who has liked to sign some known slugger, albeit for more than minimum wage, supposedly on his last legs. Sometimes it works – Frank Thomas. Other times, the slugger really IS finished – Mike Piazza. Billy didn’t start really churning his rosters until after the 4th straight time they lost the ALDS in 2003. But the Athletics haven’t really done the – everybody on minimum wage thingy, unlike Tampa and Miami and San Diego. Here are their (approximate) Opening Day payrolls in millions, as well as if they win a playoff spot: * indicates a winning record
………..Athletics …….. Marlins ……….. San Diego ……… Tampa
2012: 55 (win) ……… 118 ……………… 55 ………………… 64*
2011: 66 ………………… 57 ………………. 45 …………………. 41 (win)
2010: 51 ……………….. 55 ……………….. 38* ……………….. 71 (win)
2009: 62 ……………….. 36* ………………. 42 ………………… 63*
2008: 50 ……………….. 21* ………………. 73 ………………… 43 (win)
2007: 79 ……………….. 30 ………………. 58* ………………. 24
2006: 62 (win) ………. 14 ………………… 70 (win) ……….. 35
2005: 56* ………………. 60*………………. 62 (win) ……….. 30
2004: 59* ………………. 42 ……………….. 55* …………………30
Payroll doesn’t seem to be correllated with winning. Marlins haven’t reached higher than 3rd place no matter how much/little they spent – no wonder Loria doesn’t think they should spend anything.
Tampa started winning once Gerry Hunsicker came over and remade the team, partly with Astros’ castoffs, including pitching coach Jim Hickey. Yeah, I know – all those number 1 draft picks who were so great, like Tim Beckham and DeWon Brazelton. More like smart trades (especially with dumb Astros) and a few smart FA signings.
But basically, you don’t win consistently churning rosters or keeping payroll at rock bottom. Or, as Loria was finally forced to do in 2010 – sign ONE player to an expensive contract to up your payroll and look as if you are Serious About Winning.
Low payroll + tons of high draft picks does NOT = winning. Winning increases attendence (except in Florida). Churning the players decreases attendance (see Miami and Oakland). And people are simply not interested in going to games in which most of the players are AAAA/minor leaguers and the payroll is low, and the GM announces that FA will not be signed.
I have no reason to believe that the Astros are ever going to substantially increase the payroll for the simple reason that THEY DON’T HAVE TO. There aren’t fans who care and the owner knows that Loria has gotten away with it for over 10 years. They are now talking about a 3-4 year re-building project, meaning that all the future good players are at A ball, so I expect that Jonathan Singleton will be called up and turned into more prospects after a year or 2, if he succeeds, seeing as how he will get expensive and as how the rest of the players will be 3 years “from the next good team” or something like that. I know the system by now.