The End of Spring Training seems to go on and on and on – Soxaholix thinks so too – (WARNING – not G-rated). It’s like the last month of pregnancy – you just want it to be OVAH so you can go on the the real thing…

Here’s where we at:
First, the GOOD news – Steve Sparks and his 11.30 ERA have been let go (thank goodness – I was getting VERY worried…)
Here’s what Tim Purpura had to say – “It all comes down to performances and getting the job done. He wasn’t very effective in that regard.”
Like, duh.

Looks like the only questions left are
1 – will Buchholz or Nieve be slotted as the 5th starter (I’m betting on Buchholz starting and Nieve relieving)
Buchholz has a 1.96 ERA over 23 IP with ZERO HR, 4 BB and 11 K in 4 GS and 2 in relief
Nieve has a 3.71 ERA over 17 IP with NO HR, 6 BB and 13 K in 2 GS and 5 in relief
- note that both guys gave up 3 UER – the fielding has not been the usual Astros high quality this spring.

Who I’m worried about is Brandon Backe, who had 2 VERY bad outings in a row. Phil says he’s happy because Brandon “threw strikes” – oh goody – but the problem was the other guys hitting them strikes he threw.

As of now, he has an (shudder) 8.87 ERA over 23 IP with 11 HR, 10 BB and 11 K in 5 GS and 1 in relief.
- Yes, that was NOT a typo, eleven home runs in 23 IP. Worse than Astacio.

What we need to do is put Brandon’s games on national TV and then he’ll do the ace thing. Which reminds me – I wonder how many #4 pitchers pitch SO much better on live TV, especially in the playoffs (remember last year Brandon pitched a CG SO against the Giants on an ESPN game – one of the few that didn’t involve Yanks, Red Sox, Braves or Cubs – yeah, grumble…)

2 – will Munson or Chavez be backup catcher? We all know that Chavvy can’t hit, but do we really want to substitute a guy who hasn’t ever had an OBP over .300 – a guy who hasn’t caught since college, SEVEN years ago???? We’ll have to see… But I have a bad feeling about this because Munson has 49 AB compared to Chavvy’s 28. Yeah I know that Munson has great ST stats except for BB – only 1, but I have this tough time believing that it don’t matter if he actually knows how to catch like a ML catcher – if he did, why would he have IMMEDIATELY been moved to 3B after being drafted by the Tigers??? Remember that Luke Scott had the best ST stats last year, followed by Brad Ausmus…

3 – Neither Mo Ensberg or Preston Wilson are hitting worth a darn and they are striking out a LOT – Mo 18 of 59 PA and Preston Wilson 18 of 50 PA – fortunately they are both walking a lot, but there’s no power – Mo has 1 HR and no doubles and Preston has 3 doubles and 1 HR. I’m hoping that Mo isn’t still having trouble with his hand and swing the way he did in the playoffs and the series. He had a bad elbow the first half of 2004 and didn’t say nothing (in my opinion, because of being intimidated by the truck washer) and I hope he’s learned his lesson. Maybe both guys just need some time to get their swings and timing working. Both Jason Lane and Lance are having a great spring – so be it and shall it remain.

Have yall noticed how Astros players who are great seem to be almost unknown by the national media? Baggy (I’m still steaming over that comment by long time New York columnist Maddon who said Bagwell was a borderline HOF candidate) is getting attention because of the insurance thing instead of his great play.

Biggio, one of the 5 best 2B of all time, is gonna get attention as he gets near 3000 hits. It’s ridiculous – if he retired today, he should be headed straight into the Hall. And it took the NLCS to show the baseball world why Roy Oswalt is one of the 5 best pitchers in the NL and has been for the last 5 years (which reminds me – Drayton had BETTER be thinkin of extending that contract because I do NOT wanna see Roy wearing a (shudder) Yankees, Red Sox – or even worse – a Cubs cap in the Hall. I hear tell Walt Jocketty got his eye on Roy and I do NOT wanna see Roy in red neither…)

And our next HOFer is gonna be Lance Berkman – lifetime BA .302, OBP .416, 3 AS in 7 ML seasons. And he has hit even better in the postseason than he has in the regular season – something Mr. Clutch Gawd Derek Jeter can’t say. Now I know he’s no 5 tool guy like Baggy, but he has managed to be at least league average in the OF and even had a decent year playing center (remember that???) in 2002 (yeah, he wasn’t no Carlos Beltran, but hey, not many guys are…) I know he’s 30, but he’s got years to go and you’ll see. Smile – yall remember when he first came up, he, uh, wasn’t real too buff and someone asked him about steroids and he patted his belly and said – hey – this is grown with beer n BBQ. A real Texan.

Predictions for the season -
1) baseball will happen
2) Uncle Albert, unless he’s hurt, is going to be the best player in the ML. Sorry, Slappy

and those are just the things I’m positive of.
The media “experts” are picking who they think will win honors, divisions and series. I have found exactly one “expert” – Jeff Passan of Yahoo.com, who thinks the Astros will even break .500, and he thinks we will beat the Cards for the division title and that Roy will FINALLY win the Cy Young (bout time – and Drayton better get that contract extension done early before George decides Roy is worth a Kevin Brown contract.) I guess they think that the difference is 100% the fact that Roger isn’t pitching and that we WILL lose the 13 games he won last year.

Sigh.

The guys with the prediction systems (PECOTA, ZIPS, etc) all think the Cards will win, the Cubs will be second (hopeless giggle – with WHO pitching??? and you KNOW the rookies gonna be riding pine the day after their first Ofer or error…) and the Stros will be 5th with a losing record.

I’m also surprised how many “experts” think the White Sox won’t repeat, neither. They picking the A’s (as usual) – another hopeless giggle – I guess they will win the stat contests where you don’t need to know how to do stuff like run bases. And of course, the Yankees (sigh) and Braves.

Yall remember last year not a single “expert” ever thought we would win anything, let alone the pennant.

So remember, it’s baseball, and youneverknow….

Jeff Bagwell isn’t the only guy off the roster.

Pitchers Ezequiel Astacio (yessssssssssss), Joe Valentine and Dave Borkowski, (so WHERE is Sparks and WHY hasn’t he been released???!!!) were sent to AAA along with Charlton Jimerson, Luke Scott (who was decent, but not on fire like last year), Danny Klassen (who is injured anyhow, and catcher Hector Gimenez. Josh Anderson should be at AA.

It looks to me like Taveras will make the 25 man and play center, with Preston Wilson in left, Jason Lane in right and Lance Berkman at first. Only question is, will Phil get his way and have Eric Munson as backup catcher – a guy who hasn’t caught since 1999 in college? You think that Roy or Andy is gonna agree to be caught by a guy who hasn’t caught in 6 years? So a guy who is the rookiest of rookies is gonna be catching the 4th and 5th guys, which is NOT good. I’d rather see either Quintero or Chavez – at least they know what they’re doing behind the plate, even if they don’t know what they’re doing in front of it. Besides, Phil can pinch hit for them if he has to.

As for pitchers – well, Russ Springer has a pulled muscle in his side and he has hardly pitched at all this ST – just 1 inning, and although he is supposed to pitch a few more times, if his side still hurts, he might could start the year on the DL. So along with the 5th guy, who I STILL hope will be Buchholz, we’ll need another reliever and I hope it will be Nieve. Carlos Hernandez has pitched mostly to minor leaguers and actually hasn’t pitched much at all and I think it’s best for him to start the year in AAA. If he cleans up down there, well then we can bring him back up. I hope I hope I hope Sparks goes back to Sugarland to play with his kids.

8 more days until Opening Day!!!!

Roger Clemens lost the final game of the Bud Selig Tournament and he SEZ he’s definitely done. For now. Uh-hunh. We’ll see if Roger is sprawling on the couch, drinkin beer and watching TV when May rolls around. Or if he saying to himself – waaal heck – I kin pitch bettern them guys – honey, go get me mah glove (and her sayin to herself – thank GAWD – I do love my man but he gettin on my last nerve…)

Jeff Bagwell hasn’t had to make a throw in any game yet, but aside from him “being sore” who knows what he can do. He made a costly error today. He hit a ball to the warning track – must have been at least 350′ – the farthest I have seen him hit a ball since last April. But he’s still not hitting most balls a very long distance and he sure does NOT look like a 17 mill a year power hitter (see stats below.)

OK – we are still playing a lot of minor leaguers, so lessee what positions really ARE up for grabs:

Let’s look at who IS gonna make the team:

Pitchers: (Phil said there will be 12)
Roy Oswalt
Andy Pettitte
Brandon Backe
Wandy Rodriguez (oh yes he will)
Brad Lidge
Dan Wheeler
Mike Gallo
Trever Miller
Russ Springer
Chad Qualls

Position Players:
(assuming no Baggy)
Lance Berkman
Craig Biggio
Adam Everett
Morgan Ensberg
Brad Ausmus
Chris Burke
Eric Bruntlett
Mike Lamb
Orlando Palmeiro
Preston Wilson
Jason Lane
Willy Taveras

- So the questions are -
1) who will be the 5th starter?
2) who is the final reliever?
3) who is the last position player?

Pitchers – let’s look at who is left: (Pitchers Matt Albers and Felipe Paulino got sent down today)
from the 40 man:
RHP Ezequiel Astacio age 26 1 – 0 with a 1.86 ERA – 1 GS in 4 G and 1 Sv in 1 OPP over 9.2 IP – 4 H, 7 BB, 7K
RHP Taylor Buchholz age 24 1 – 1 in 2 GS in 4 G, 1 SV with a 2.25 ERA over 12 IP – 13 H, NO HR, 1 BB, 2 K
RHP Fernando Nieve age 23 1 – 1 in 2 GS in 4 G with a 5.25 ERA over 12.0 IP with 17 H, 1 HR, 5 BB, 10 K
(note the fielding has been terrible and each pitcher has 3 UER, and Astacio has 2 HBP)

NRIs:
RHP Dave Borkowski age 29 4.26 ERA over 6.1 IP with 8 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 K
RHP Paul Estrada age 23 o ERA over 2 IP with no hits and 1 K
LHP Carlos Hernandez age 25 0.00 ERA over 1 IP with 1 BB and 1 K and no hits
RHP Ronnie Martinez age 22 0.00 over 1 IP with 1 BB and 1 K and no hits
RHP Jailen Peguero age 25 0 – 1 and a BS with a 16.20 ERA in 1 G over 1.2 IP with 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
RHP Chad Reineke age 23 0.00 over 1 IP in 1 game
RHP Steve Sparks age 40 1 – 1 with a 9.90 ERA in 1 GS in 3 G over 10.0 IP -17 H, 2 HR, 6 BB, 7 K
RHP Mitch Talbot age 22 6.00 ERA in 2 G over 3.0 IP with 4 H,3 BB, 1 K
RHP Joe Valentine age 26 1 – 0 in 6 G with a 4.50 ERA over 8.0 IP with 13 H, 3 BB, 3 K

- Well, seems to me that Buchholz has the best stats of the 3 guys from the 40 man and of the NRIs, they have given the most innings to Borkowski and Valentine because they are “veterans” – (even theough they aren’t very good)

BUT

even though Carlos Hernandez has only thrown 1 inning, and only threw to one batter in the WBC (David Ortiz, who hit a 2 run HR), I think that the Organization wants him on the team for old time’s sake and that for some bizarre reason I can NOT understand, Garner is trying to get Sparks on the team, even though he obviously is lousy.

In fact, today, Phil told reporters that it looks like he’s going to pick from Carlos Hernandez, Ezequiel Astacio, Fernando Nieve, Taylor Buchholz and Steve Sparks for the 5th starter. In my opinion, he should try Buchholz as the 5th guy and put Astacio in the bullpen. Hernandez and Nieve can start at AAA and Sparks should stay retired. The young NRI guys need more minor league experience and Borkowski and Valentine can be filler in the minors. If they want. But they weren’t very good in the majors, and we aren’t desperate for bullpen help.

OK – last but not least, who will be the last position player?

Catchers Raul Chavez, age 33; Hector Gimenez, age 22; Humberto Quintero, age 26
OF: lefty Josh Anderson, age 23; righty Charlton Jimerson, age 26 and lefty Luke Scott, age 27

NRIs -
Catchers Jonathan Ash, Kevin Davidson and Neil Sellers are going back to the minors. Trust me on this.
Infielder Thomas Manzella and OF Hunter Pence, Brian Gordon and Mike Rodriguez are also going back to the minors.

So the guys who are left are:
26 year old switch hitter Brooks Conrad
30 year old 3B Danny Klassen
28 year old lefty Eric Munson (pretty much 3B, but Phil is playing him everywhere but SS and 2B and P)
33 year old 3B Kevin Orie
24 year old switch hitter Benny Zobrist

You know how I complained about Garner paying WAAYYYY to much attention to Steve Sparks, who played for Phil when he managed the Tigers? Well, we got 3 guys here who also have played for Phil before and he seems sweet on Munson, even talking about how Munson could be a backup catcher – a position he hasn’t played since college. Good Grief, as Charlie Brown would say.

OK, after checking the stats:
Luke Scott by FAR looks the best – he walks, hits for decent power and doesn’t K too much. Orie and Munson have hit for power (when they hit) but won’t walk and don’t get on base enough. The other guys haven’t done real too well at anything. And he HAS layed in the majors, so Orie and Munson don’t have anything on him there. Jimerson is an Organization favorite, but he doesn’t get on base well and strikes out too much.

As for backup catcher – either Chavez or Quintero – does it really matter?

Well, where do I start?

This team is looking lousy – reminds me of last May, only worse. Steve Sparks in the John Franco shoulda stayed retired role. The fielding has been absolutely terrible – then again, there a lot of minor leaguers playing and a lot of guys out of position. Andy Pettitte looked lousy today – threw everything down the middle and got taken to the cleaners by Posada and a bunch of minor leaguers.

Sigh.

So we sent down pitchers Jason Hirsh (not a surprise – I expected he would start his first year in AAA), Jimmy Barthmeier (looked very good, but needs more time), Juan Gutierrez, Jared Gothreaux (only 2 IP, but no hits or runs), Mark McLemore (who hasn’t thrown a single pitch) and catchers Alan Zinter (hitting .280) and J.R. House (hitting .375), but not Quintero, hitting 0 fer 8 . Alan Zinter is like 37 and a career minor leaguer, so he won’t never get a chance, but I guess (I HOPE) they want House to get more AB, since he didn’t play baseball at all last year. Raul Chavez has been hitting, but then again, 8 AB is not a real good sample size and I’ve seen to much of his “hitting” over the past few years…

I know that a team can have a great ST record and stink in the regular season, and vice versa, but those guys are NOT lookin good out there.