Well, there a heck of a lot more than 5 questions to be asked, but hey, I have to say more than – I hate the Crappy Veteran Fetish and This Year’s Team Ain’t Gonna Go Nowheres unless most of the guys on the Cards, Brewers, and Cubs get hurt.
Anyway, here is this year’s article I wrote for The Hardball Times. Click here to read.
As all yall have probably already heard, Berkman is needing minor surgery on the knee (not the one he had an operation on back in 05) he hurt last week, and will be out 2-4 weeks.
This means that someone else will be playing first base, and there really isn’t another 1B available, like Mike Lamb, a couple years back, so Blum and Shelton will be trying to field that position.
And speaking of approaching thunderclouds and raining on parades, I hear tell that Ed Wade and his own managerial hire are, uh, not exactly agreeing on who should be on the 25 man roster.
For instance, Fast Eddie has told everyone that Quintero WILL be the backup catcher (regaardless of how well Towles and Castro do – and if Castro does well, and if the Astros are going to forfeit an extra year of Castro by not waiting until the Super 2 deadline, Towles will be wasted in AAA – and you KNOW they won’t trade him for anything but ANOTHER middle reliever, if that…)
But I digress…
Anyway, apparently, Mills wants a totally different bench (seeing as how he has no choice about who plays second or third) and he wants BOTH Towles and Castro (not Q) and Maysonet, Johnson, Yordany Ramirez and Alex Romero, and he wants to give them a LOT more playing time than Fast Eddie thinks – and we all know that Eddie wants moldy oldies Blum, Q, Kepp, Michaels and Sullivan. He said, and I quote “Towles, Maysonet, Johnson and Ramirez may just have to wait until we have a spot for them…”
Which is why Fast Eddie is ranked on GM lists as – well, at least he’s not as bad as Dayton Moore…
It sure seems to be more than possible that Fast Ed is, um, going along with Drayton’s historic preference for Old Guys. After all, Ed does “work with” Tal Smith…
I’m shocked, SHOCKED that Drayton extended Fast Eddie’s contract for 2 more years.
Sun rises in east, sets in west – news at 11.
Although I would have really enjoyed it if Marvin Zindler (rest his blue glassed, face lifted soul) were here at 10:25 to announce – SLIIIIIIIME IN THE ICE MACHINE!!! I WADE-ED KNEE DEEP IN CRAP!!!!! on AHHHHHHHH WITNESS NEEEEEEEWS!!
sigh
It’s like this – unless the fans start blaming Fast Eddie, or unless Drayton starts losing money (and no, I don’t believe that he has ever lost so much as a penny), or unless Ed defies him, Ed ain’t goin nowheres and neither are my Astros – well, that is, unless Pedro Feliz steps up and provides the Albert Pujols-like offense that Eddie and the Astros fans are, for some reason I do NOT get, expecting – not to mention the fact that Feliz and Blum had similar offensive stats these past 2 years. But I digress…
So Ed, “working with” Tal will continue the fine Astros tradition of absolutely refusing to sign any player to anything long term or longER term while he is still cheap (see Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman or ANY other young player) as well as overpaying for players in their decline years, as long as they are ex-Phillies.
And yes, I know that Drayton still holds the reins around Ed’s throat, and yes I know that in spite of Bobby Heck, Drayton STILL won’t pay much for draftees and he STILL won’t let Heck get the best player (see Smoak vs Castro) and it remains to be seen if Drayton will actually allow Brad Mills to play players with an eye FIRST to winning instead of attendence – not to mention refusing to allow him to play young guys instead of the Jason Smiths of the baseball world.
Ed Wade’s strength, as I have said many times, is getting cheap relievers off the scrap heap. Unfortunately, it is his ONLY strength.
Until Drayton changes his attitude, unfortunately, Ed Wade is going to be the GM for a long LONG time – unless, as the saying goes, he is caught with a live boy or dead girl.
shrug
sigh
It’s unbelieveably hard to remember that the Astros won the pennant only 5 years ago – that they have slid this far, this fast into lousiness is tough to swallow.
sigh
The Astros are passing out their propaganda about this year’s schedule being good for one of their old “patented” late season runs for the postseason. Uh-hunh. I know bettern that. But still, there are a few guys to root for besides hoping that Bourn and Wandy can keep it up, that Pence and Clank will maintain and that Berkman and Oswalt can get it BACk up. So here are my big hopes for this year:
1) Tommy Manzella hits at LEAST .250 in April to shut up a couple of the Astros fans who think that Miggy Tejada was the Best Player EVAH had (besides The Saints) because he hit 300. Anyway, it’s not that there is anyone else on the 40 man who can play SS and Geoff Blum is NOT a SS and watching Jeff Keppinger “field” second or third is like watching a car wreck
2) the wifebeater pitches as well as my 7 year old son and gets released
3) Fulchino, Gervacio and Arias continue to ROOL and move into the setup and closer roles
4) Lindstrom is used for mopup (because, unless Arnesberg teaches him how to throw something besides a straight FB, that is all he is gonna be good for
5) Wesley Wright pitches like a lefty Pedro 1999 and makes the rotation and gets the Cy Young (I like how all the small guys on this team are all suddenly 5′11″ and 195 lbs. Funny that I don’t hear people screaming about the “weight gain…”
6) last but not least, Towles finally takes his chance and hits as well as he did in AAA.
Good news and bad news, yall.
Good news is that it seems as if Drayton really has turned over the reins to Ed Wade and has stopped dictating who will and who will not be signed, as there is no way under heaven that Brett Myers, a 240 pound man who felt perfectly comfortable punching his 120 lb wife in her FACE in the middle of a public street in front of multiple witnesses, could POSSIBLY be described as a “good guy.” Yes, I know that his wife refused to file charges – so do most women whose husbands feel perfectly comfortable hitting them in the face. And we are not talking about an argument, we are not talking about a he said/she said unwitnessed “alleged” event, neither. Witnesses took pics and videos – they were posted briefly, then taken down, don’t ask me why. If I still had a link, or if someone had sent me a pic of this, I would post it every time Myers appeared for the team.
To me, this is a clear signal that Drayton has not just stopped interfering with any sort of baseball management, but has stopped caring about the team, period. Remember, he’s the one who advertised the Astros as “The Good Guys” for years. Not so much any more. I know that a lot of fans have hoped that Drayton would sell the team, because they are hoping for George Steinbrenner, sort of like guys who are hoping that if they ditch their fat ugly wife/girlfriend, they will then be able to date Megan Fox (substitute hot woman of your dreams if it ain’t Megan) only to find that the only females who will go near them are even older, uglier, fatter and more demanding and unpleasant women. If Drayton is going to continue to fill the team with wife beaters, or adds other kinds of no-goods like drunk drivers (no, not near as bad as wife beaters) then I’m going to join up with those fans.
I heard tell that Fast Eddie was chasing HARD after Myers at the Winter Meetings; I had a bad BAD feeling that Myers might could be signed in spite of the fact that Drayton supposedly wanted to cut payroll from 107 mill to 90 mill because Ed Wade is obviously obsessed with signing every ex-Phillie who is no longer good enough to play on that team and is unwanted by them. I had an even worse feeling when I found out that all the rumors I had heard about Drayton wanting to sell the team after he became the laughingstock of MLB after the Ike debacle were true. And Drayton obviously doesn’t care any more about the reputation of the team or the men who play on it.
Anything GOOD about this deal? Besides the fact that it might could stop Fast Eddie from signing someone worse to a longer contract for even MORE money?
Well, might could be that seeing as how Myers has had closing experience, he might could be used in that role if Lindstrom fails and if Lyons fails as he did so often in the past.
Good news is that he might could push Moehler into long relief.
And that is just about it.
Bad news is that we have a really lousy human being on our team. And yes, a huge powerful adult male who thinks nothing of deliberately hitting an unarmed, helpless female less than half his size in her FACE, is, to put it mildly, a really bad person. I don’t care if the wife “provoked” him, I don’t care if she “forgave” him, I don’t even care if she is someone who gets sexually excited by being hit, and yes, there really are people like that. There has to be something wrong with your “makeup” to deliberately hit a small, defenseless person.
Even if Mrs. Myers had been a 6′4″ 240 lb woman, she would STILL be at a significant physical disadvantage, based on the fact that even at the same height and weight, an adult male has significantly larger and stronger upper body musculature and no female could possibly hope to so much as fight him to a draw. There is a reason you never see boxing matches between males and females the same height and weight and the reason is that there is no contest whatsoever.
I am not just saying this because Myers is not a particularly good pitcher; I would be saying this if Myers was the best pitcher in the majors and had been for 3 years, had never had surgery and we got him for the next 10 years for free. Every 5th day, this despicable person is going to take the mound for MY team, the team I have rooted for since I was old enough to remember, and I am going to hope and pray that he does SO terribly that he is released, even if it means that MY team loses every 5th day or every time he appears on the mound in relief. Even if it means my team finishes last in the NL. Even if it means my team beats the 61 Mets for the worst record posted by any ML team since 1900. And I have never, ever felt that way about ANY player on MY team before.
sigh
No, I don’t expect ballplayers to be plaster saints or “role models”; I can root for a player on my team who is guilty of many deadly sins. Say, gluttony (Clank) or sloth (um, moren a few guys there) or vanity (all of em, most likely) or lust (wouldn’t be surprised if there was plenty of that) or avarice (grinning – who among them could not cast THAT stone) or envy (all of em, no doubt) and even drunkenness/drugs/steroids. But I draw the line at murder, rape, child abuse and wife beating.
sigh
At least this dirtbag is only signed for 1 year at 5 mill – I can’t find anything about an option.
amusement
You’d think that Ed Wade would have second thoughts about signing a very large violent man after his experience with Shawn Chacon, but maybe he’s convinced himself that Myers only enjoys hitting small defenseless females, not small not as defenseless males.
I would guess that this means that the Astros have decided that Wilton Lopez, Yorman Bazardo, Wesley Wright and Felipe Paulino are not going to be adequate as even 5th men. I HOPE it doesn’t mean that they have given up on Norris. A reporter for the Chronicle named Bernardo Fallas claims that that Myers is going to compete with Wandy for the #2 spot. Right. Myers has never had ONE year in which he has done as well as Wandy in 2009 and has not pitched as well as Wandy did in 08 since 2006. (This is what happens when you have the soccer reporter write a baseball post. People complain about Richard Justice, but he is a VERY good baseball man and wouldn’t make a dumb remark like that…)
sigh
I supposed I had better get to talking about Myers’ career and stats, seeing as how he’s gonna be on this team unless he gets released or until the year is over.
The Phillies signed Brett Myers out of high school in the first round of the 99 draft. He came up in the middle of the 2002 season, started 12 games and had a 1.46 WHIP and a 4.52 ERA. He was kept in the rotation for all of 03 and 04, and his best year by FAR was 05, in which he started 34 games, had a 3.72 ERA (120 ERA+) and a 1.21 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9.
He was the Phils best starter in 06 as well, throwing 31 games with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. At the end of the year, Billy Wags was a FA and signed with the4 Mets, so the Phils decided to make their best starter into a closer because they had too many other starters – namely Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Jon Lieber, Kyle Kendrick, Adam Eaton and Kyle Lohse.
And mind, this was a year in which JD Durbin got 18 starts and they traded FOR Freddie Garcia, who got 10 more.
Ed Wade.
As a closer, Myers had 3 starts (1 good, 2 horrible) had 48 relief appearances, finished 37 games, had 21 saves, 3 BS plus 5 losses with an ERA of 2.87, WHIP 1.20, 10.8 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9 IP.
Myers was put back in the rotation in 08, threw 30 games over 190 innings, had a 4.55 ERA (96 ERA+) and a 1.38 WHIP with 9.4 H/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9. I should note that he had a GREAT deal of difficulty readjusting to the rotation and was sent down after 17 starts (June 23) when his ERA reached 5.84. He spent 4 weeks in the minors and got his head and motion straightened out, then returned, gave up 3 ER in 5 IP, then threw 8 straight QS, and 9 of 10 QS, including 2 CG and finished the year with 2 stinkers. He threw 2 excellent games – 7 IP giving up 1 and 2 runs in the playoffs, and one stinker, 5 ER/5 IP, which the Phils won anyway.
He was injured most of last year – started 10 games, then was put on the DL in May and didn’t return until September, and made 8 relief appearances over 7 IP with a 6.43 ERA.
Assuming he has recovered from his hip surgery, ZIPS projects him to have an ERA+ of 98 (of course, that was still when he was listed as a Phillie, and will have to be adjusted for the Astros park. He averaged 1.4 HR/9 IP, but then again, he pitched half his games at Philly, which is more than a bit of a home run park.
He isn’t a #2 starter any more than I am, but IF he has recovered, I would guess he would be the #3 unless Bud Norris, who has better stuff, significantly outpitches him in Spring Training.
I know that most of you either typed in or linked to www.theastrosdugout.com and saw a different title. I have posted at the soon to be vanished mvn.com since June 1, 2004 under the blog name The Astros Dugout, and thought that keeping the familiar name as the domain title would help people find me.
However, I thought that a new, fresh start deserved a new, fresh blog title. I chose Astros-holic Synonymous partly to explain why I am still blogging in spite of the fact that I should just go on the wagon as this team seems determined to flush itself deeper into the sewer of suckage; but I can quit being an Astros fan ANY ol time I want to. Yep, just walk away. But in the meantime, I need a support system (and I thought that naming the blog ”I Wanna Go All Shawn Chacon On Ed Wade’s Cruddy Middle Reliever Obsessed Pea Brain When He Does Idiotic Stuff Like Sign Brandon Mediocre Lyons To A Contract Three Years Too Long And 15 Million Too Much” was a bit cumbersome, you know what I’m sayin…)
I also picked a punny name to honor my late friend and mentor, the great baseball writer and human being, John Brattain, who had a superlative sense of humor and dearly loved a good pun.
I want to thank my friend and fellow Primate, Coot Veal And Cot Deal, for sparing me the time from running his web design firm, www.unrepentant-design.com to help me set up this wonderful new site. He’s an especially awesome male human being, because he did what I wanted, not what HE wanted (he must be married, dontcha think?) I welcome any comments/suggestions you have for me about the appearance of my blog, as I am learning what works and what doesn’t, but understand right here and now that I am NOT changing my mind about no Astros icky brick red on the header. If you want to see an Astros player up there near the title, you have a choice between Kevin Bass and Jimmy Wynn. If Wandy isn’t traded this off-season, he can go up there, too. Forget Bagwell/Biggio/Mike Scott/Nolan Ryan - I prefer the underappreciated.
Also, the rules about no bad language, no libel and use of good manners at all times still stands. One of my Giants fans friends warned me, “Once Astro fans watch Pedro Feliz ‘hit’, they may increase the pressure to waive the bad language limit” and trust me, I understand. But if I held that limit in force for Dan EFF Miceli all the way up to Cecil (Worst Manager EVAH) Cooper, I will be able to keep it in place these days.
And thanks right now to Dan Szymborski, inventor of ZIPS prediction system, co-owner of Primer, for helping me get pub to launch this blog and to Matt H. for its clever entry title.
Speaking of the title, it refers to the fact that many fans are enraged by the ineptness of Astros ownership and management since the day that Drayton McLane talked Roger Clemens into un-retiring. Houstonians talked about (almost) nothing but the Astros all winter and spring and season ticket sales sky, um, rocket ed. This year, with Ed Wade’s obtaining Matt Lindstrom and his 100 MPH straight FB for a couple of low minor leaguers and Brandon Lyon, a middle reliever, for 5 MEELYUN dollars a year for THREE years and Pedro Feliz and his vanishing bat for 4.5 mill, furious Astros fans are refusing to re-up their season tickets to fuel Ed Wade’s lust for overpaying for relievers and obtaining Ex-Phillies.
Let alone re-upping Jason Michaels – ex-Phillie, natch, (-) 1 RCAA over 152 PA: 12 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 16 BB, 38 K, 2 GIDP: .237/.322/.430/.752 for a 98 OPS+ to accompany a glove that is only slightly better than Clank’s. And, by the way, I should note that Michaels is supposed to be primarily a pinch hitter, and his numbers with men on base are .231/.286/.385 and with men in scoring position are .216/.293/.378/.671. You see, we needed Michaels back because this team is SOOOOO sorely lacking in Veteran Presence, seeing as how he is a 33 year old journeyman and the youngest position player is the wet behind the ears Tommy Manzella, age 27.
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Anyway, back to the subject of even MORE wasteful expenditures (yes it IS possible) Ed Wade obtained Miguel Tejada, a suspected steroids user, the DAY before the Mitchell Report was made public. Had he waited a day longer, he most likely could have obtained him for significantly less than 3 cheap major leaguers and 2 minor leaguers. Two days after Fast Eddie threw money at Lyons (and no, I don’t believe that some other team offered him 2 years at 3.5 mill/year), the list of non-tenders was revealed.
Let’s take a look at that there list and see if Eddie could have gotten someone just as good and a WHOLE lot cheaper:
- Jose Arrendondo, RH RP, age 25, Angels: fabulous 08, horrific 09 - worth at least a minor league contract
- Brian Bass, RH RP, age 28, Orioles: 90 ERA+ over 2 years, 4.87 ERA/ 1.59 WHIP – NRI at most
- Lance Broadway, rhp, Mets (good looking MAN, bad looking pitcher)
- Matt Capps, RH RP, age 25, Pirates; was their closer for 3 years – had a TERRIBLE year last year, increase in H/9 IP from 8.1 from 06-08, to 12.2 last year. Increased BB/9 a bit as well as HR/9. Maybe he was hurt – with the Pirates, youneverknow. DEFINITELY worth a try.
- D.J. Carrasco, RH RP, age 32, White Sox: looks a HECK of a lot better than Lyons: last 2 years with Sox, 3.82 ERA/1.36 WHIP – a real horse of a RP – pitched 93 innings over 49 games with only 1 start.
- Clay Condrey, RH RP, age 33, from Beaumont, Phillies: do you need to know anything more? Hows about 6 years, 6 mill a year? Cheap at the price. The guy’s a WINNAH with a RINGGG!!!!!
- Neal Cotts, LH RP, age 29, C*bs: he’s the guy who killed us in 05, but he rapidly detiorated – 11 terrible innings last year.
- Mark DiFelice, RHRP, age 33, Brewers: GET THIS GUY!!! we should sign him to a ML contract – he was extremely effective, pitching 51 innings of 110 ERA+ ball with a 3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 1 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 8 K/9. No idea why the Crew is letting him go (oh yeah, he DID shut the Astros DOWN every time he faced us) and keeping Carlos Villanueve instead…
- Phil Dumatrait, LH SP/RP, age 28, Pirates: first rounder from the RedSox B.T. (before Theo) relieved in 13 innefective innings last year. Walks too many, strikes out too few, gives up too many hits.
- Seth McClung, RH SP/RP, age 28, Brewers: 4.04 ERA (105 ERA+) 1.41 WHIP was his career high in 08. Meh.
- Adam Miller, RH SP, age 25, Indians 1st rounder in 03, never made it out of AAA with good reason. But someone will give this guy a minor league contract because he used to be a prospect.
- Dustin Moseley, RH SP, age 28, Angels: Cincy’s 1st rounder in 2000, traded to LAA for Ramon Ortiz (remember how he was supposed to be the next Pedro Martinez? Ummm, no.) 168 ML innings over 4 years, 5.41 ERA, 1.554 WHIP.
My, we sure have a lot of failed first rounders, don’t we? Where was I? Oh yeah…
- Jackson Quezada, RH RP, age 23, Padres: not sure what an A ball pitcher is doing on this list, but he had a 2.12 ERA over 63.2 IP with 27 saves with a 0.958 ERA and a 11.2 K/9. Heck, I’d give him a try and I don’t CARE if he is “too old” for A ball. He fits right in with the Astros, anyway.
- Tim Redding, RH SP/RP, age 31, Mets: no thanks
- Anthony Reyes, RH SP/RP, age 28, Indians (ex-Card, on TLR’s poopoo list because he is too limp or something) but his numbers are all over the place and they were terrible last year – of course, he was hurt. I’d give him a minor league tryout. Just to, uh, irritate TLR…
- Jose Veras, RH RP, age 29, Indians: below average reliever with 4.42 ERA/1.38 WHIP, 99 ERA+ over past 4 years/128 innings. Pass
- Chien-Ming Wang, RH SP, age 29, Yankees: has had very serious injuries, and will probably sign some sort of deal with the Yanks anyway. Most pitches with seriouship injuries don’t come back anyway…
I’d definitely prefer Carrasco to Lyons and I’d grab Matt Capps, as well.
But truth is that I’m tired of the Astros just signing cromulent players because they have some sort of ML resume. I’d rather see more Wesley Wrights, seeing as how this team really has no more chance of being any better than last year’s.
And my mother, and many more people are trying to tell the front office this by refusing to re-up their season tickets, but seems as if the front office prefers the casual fan to the loyal one.
UPDATE 11 AM: Arredondo is having TJ surgery and DiFelice is having shoulder labrum surgery. So they are out.
Well, there are Effing A trades, Effing F trades and everything in between.
There are trades done for short term gain, for long term gain and because your owner told you to trade some guy. Given the fact that it is extremely difficult to ascertain just how much input Drayton had on each trade, given that Drayton’s middle name is – I’m a better GM than You Are, I am not going to call Eddie Wade either a genius or a nincompoop. Well, not a total nincom POOP (dang I LUUUUVVV that word. I watch too much Daffy Duck…)
Remember that Ed was not responsible for the trades of Ensberg, who fetched a couple pieces of chewed gum or something, which is what he was worth by then (let this be a lesson to stupid macho types who think that playing hurt is a wonderful terrific selfless thing to do for the team. The “macho” refers to stupid players, their stupid teammates, stupid fans and stupid sportswriters, both amateur and professional.)
The Dan Wheeler for Ty Wigginton trade was also Purpura’s. Poor ol Pur-puppet is pretty much remembered for trading future Hall of Famer Willy Taveras for Jason Jennings and (supposedly) running off Pettitte. Ahem.
Also, from the 2007 team, Adam Everett, Mike Lamb, Eric Munson and Jason Jennings were not tendered a contract and Biggio and Orlando Palmeiro retired.
And I strongly suspect that Ed Wade was ordered to get rid of Lidge, Burke, Albers and Scott (of those traded, not non-tendered) and ordered to acquire Tejada (who Drayton has wanted since the HR Derby in 04 – or so I hear tell.)
OK. Trade time.
1 – Jason Lane to the Padres for 10 bucks and a dollar dog.
sigh. Unfortunately, this is one of those trades in which both sides came out even. Poor Jason Lane. Damm I wish I knew what on earth happened to that poor boy. The Astros wasted away at least 2 years of his youth keeping him in AAA, then keeping him on the bench. Sigh. But let’s remember he was instrumental to the 2005 pennant, just as Mo Ensberg was.
2 – Chris Burke, Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez to the Diamondbacks for Jose Valverde.
Money - 955K + 1.3125 mill + 390K (2.66 mill) : 4.7 mill
Performance:- Juan Gutierrez: AAA – 116.2 IP over 22 GS, 3 relief – 6.09 ERA, 1.68 WHIP – 44BB, 87 K 11 HR, 11.73 hits/9 IP. His worst performance of his career.
- Chris Burke: he never recovered from his shoulder injury. 199 PA over 86 games: 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 22 BB, 33 K, 2 GIDP, 3 sac fly, 12 RBI. .194/.310/.273/.583 and (-) 12 RCAA
- Chad Qualls: Good – 73.2 IP/77 G with a career low ERA of 2.81 and a 1.05 WHIP, 18 BB, 77 K, 4 HR and .597 OPS against. Bad was him blowing 8 saves (and they lost every one of those games) as a set up man and 2 more losses. Oh yeah – and he Francoed 4 more games, blowing the lead and getting inherited ruinners assigned to the other guy so that THEY were tagged for the L. Total – he lost his team 14 games. However, with the collapse of Brandon Lyon in September, he was made the closer and saved 7 of the last 8 games, giving up only 2 hits and a BB. + 15 RSAA. Interesting that RSAA does not reflect games lost/blown.
- Jose Valverde – After a VERY rough beginning over the first 3 weeks, he only blew 4 more saves and lost 1 more over the remainder of the year while saving 44. Not Lidge, but darn good. 72 IP over 74 games – 10 HR, 23 BB, 83 K and a .686 OPS against. Total – he lost his team 5 games, but unlike Arizona, the Astros came back to win 4 games. 8 RSAA
Conclusion: I would have to say that the Astros ended up on the winning side of this trade in spite of paying 2 mill for just 1 player – at least so far. Since they got rid of Lidge, they simply HAD to have someone who could close, and there was absolutely no one on the 40 man who could take Lidge’s place and they obviously either wanted Qualls gone or didn’t think he had what it takes to close. Valverde saved 44 games and won 2 more while losing the team only 5 games (although it could have been 9) and Qualls, although he had better numbers, lost his team 14 games. Burke provided next to nothing as a utility guy. The Astros have control of Valverde for 09 and the Diamondbacks have 2 more years of Qualls and I would guess that Burke is finished and Gutierrez looks as if he won’t make the majors. (Interesting that Qualls has 15 RSAA and Valverde 8 – and Brad Lidge only 19??!!!?)
I should mention that one of the reasons (besides $$$) that the Dbax were comfortable trading Valverde away was that they thought Brandon Lyon could step and be an A-list closer and they could get 2 prospects at the end of the year when they let him walk. They sure were wrong on that score.
3 – Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, Troy Patton and AAA player Mike Constanzo to the Orioles for All-Star Miguel Tejada.
Money - 430K + 395K + 390K + 390K (1.61 mill) : 13 mill (and 13 mill next year)
Performance:- Luke Scott: 536 PA over 148 G: 29 double, 2 triple, 23 HR, 53 BB, 102 K, 7 GIDP, 3 SF, 65 RBI from the 6-hole (mostly) 7 RCAA
- Matt Albers: as a reliever, 37.2 IP over 23 G: 31 H, 19 BB, 3 HR, 22 K, 2.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .230 BAA; as a starter, terrible – 3 games, 11.1 IP, 8 ER and he still ended up with 5 RSAA
- Dennis Sarfate: as a reliever, 64 IP over 53 G: 43H, 48 BB, 3 HR, 71 K, 3.38 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, .195 BAA; terrible as a starter – 10.38 ERA over 14 IP and 4 GS – lowered his RSAA from 5 to (-3)
- Mike Constanzo: AAA (his first year) .261/.333/.395/728 – 52 BB, 159 K over 483 AB. Not great for a 3B – and I also remember he made 30 something errors, too – can’t find the stat page, unfortunately,
- Miguel Tejada: 666 PA over 158 G: .283/.314/.415/.729: 38 double, 3 triple, 13 HR, 24 BB, 77 K, 32 GIDP (a new NL record) 7 SB, 7 CS, (-)26 RCAA.
Conclusion: Definitely an Orioles win, both in terms of players and money. Sure I know that All-Star Tejada (reminds me of All-Star Lance Carter with the 6 something ERA a few years back) is popular in Houston because he is “energetic” and hits for average and seldom (shudder) walks. His glove was better than I dared hope, but I am not sure that at age 36, his agility will allow the same performance. His glove most certainly is not worth 13 million and his bat most definitely is not. He is essentially untradable because of his enormous salary and his rapidly declining power. I am still amused by all the people who were sooooo sure that Miggy would hit 50 homers fer SHER this year. And saddened by the number of people who think Barry Bonds is evil personified for (supposedly) using steroids but don’t mind one bit that Tejada did.
Oh, and by the way that (-)26 RCAA is exactly the same as Adam Everett’s 2006, his last full year. Tejada had 66 RBI batting 2nd, 3rd or 5th. Everett had 55 RBI batting 8th, behind Brad Ausmus. Yet, Everett’s bat was vilified and Tejada’s praised. It’s all in the BA.
Meanwhile, Luke Scott outplayed Hunter Pence (who had -7 RCAA), Albers was a nails reliever until he got hurt, Sarfate was good as a reliever, terrible as a starter and Troy Patton spent the year on the DL with a torn labrum – who knows if he will ever be able to pitch.
4 – Josh Anderson to the Braves for Oscar Villareal.
Money - 380 K : 2.6 mill
Performance:- Oscar Villareal: 37.2 execrable IP over 35 G – 5.05 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 12 HR, 17 BB, 21 K. He got tagged with 3 L and he blew 3 more that the Astros lost. (-) 3 RSAA
- Josh Anderson: in AAA, he hit .314/.358/.405/.763 over 453 AB with 23 double, 4 triples, 4 homers, 30 BB, 57 K, 42 SB, 7 CS; He had almost the same line over 142 AB in the majors once the Braves traded Kotsay and he had 2 RCAA. Did I mention that the guy is a great CF?
Conclusion: This is most DEFINITELY an effing F trade. Ed Wade needs to learn an important lesson here: John Schuerholz has been GM of the Braves since 1991. I can think of exactly two good pitchers he has traded since then – Jason Schmidt and Adam Wainwright (I would call Odalis Perez and Jason Marquis – OK major leaguers, some good years some bad. And they were both traded because they did not get along with Bobby and/or Leo.) That is it. He was wrong about exactly TWO guys. Two guys in 17 years should make you think a bazillion times before trading for a Braves pitcher, let alone signing him to a 2 year deal BEFORE you see how well he pitches. The Astros never thought much of Josh Anderson, who, like Bourn, is a lefty – and he was essentially a AAA lifer as far as the Astros were concerned. Ed’s high opinion of Michael has not been Bourn out by his performance, at least so far, and if Michael does not improve this year, it will essentially be a flushing of 2.6 mill down the toilet. Plus the loss of a Michael Bourn clone, only better, that we already had.
5 – Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett to the Phillies for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and AAA player Mike Costanzo.
Money – 6.35 mill + 600K : 396 K + 1.125 mill (Philly got incredibly more value for their 7 mill than the Astros did for their 1.5 mill)
Performance:- Brad Lidge: 69.1 IP/72 G: 2 HR, 35 BB, 92 K: 41 saves, ZERO BS, but he did cause the team to lose 1 by letting inherited runners score. 19 RSAA. An Effing A year, that is fer SHER. He only gave up runs when his team was already losing.
- Eric Bruntlett: .217/.297/.297/.584 over 238 PA with 15 RBI – used mostly as a DR after the 7th inning when the Phils were ahead (-) 16 RCAA
- Michael Bourn: 514 PA over 138 G: .229/.288/.300/.588: 10 doubles, 4 triples, 5 HR, 37 BB, 111 K, 41 SB, 10 CS, (-)29 RCAA. He did have a .603 OPS from the 7-hole instead of the leadoff spot, but it wasn’t particularly noticeable – well, his BA was .260 which is almost high enough to make the fans happy.
- Geoff Geary: 64 IP/55 G: 2.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 12 hold, 2 BS,13 RSAA
- Mike Costanzo (see the Orioles trade)
Conclusion: So far, this looks like an effing F trade. Or at least a D- as Geary was a good middle relief guy when he wasn’t hurt. Bourn certainly has a better glove and is a much better baserunner than Pence, but as a leadoff guy, Bourn flunked. People LUUUVVVV to insist that Lidge had a mental problem, but it sure looks to me as if Lidge had an injured KNEE problem. But nonetheless, the fans and probably the owner wanted him gone and all I can say is that Bourn had better turn into Kenny Lofton for this trade to not be an unmitigated disaster. Oh yeah – and Eric Bruntlett was nails in the World Series – hit a homer and scored the winning run in 2 games.
As for Bourn, the team would have been a lot better off keeping Anderson and getting a starter for Lidge instead of yet another middle reliever and a guy who looks as if Gillick was right in assessing him as a DR.
6 – AAA pitcher Chad Reinecke to the Padres for Randy Wolf
Money - around 80K : 3.7 mill
Performance:- Chad Reinecke 18 IP over 3 games and 1 in relief – 5.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP (-) 2 RSAA: in AAA, 129 IP over 22 GS – 1.32 WHIP, 4.35 ERA, 20 HR, 41 BB, 113 K
- Randy Wolf: as an Astro - 70.1 IP over 12 GS (5 2/3 IP/GS) 3.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7 RSAA; As a Padre: 119.2 IP over 21 GS (5 2/3 IP/GS) 4.74 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, (-)11 RSAA
Conclusion: Well, the Astros had no use for Reinecke except as a AAA lifer and Wolf was most certainly better than Runelvys Hernandez and all the others who were run out there as #5 guys. Ed Wade wanted to sign Wolf before the season, still wants him to sign this year and he provided decent pitching. However, he is not the “horse” too many people think he is and he is definitely not a better pitcher than Wandy. I seriously doubt that Reinecke will suddenly turn into a good, let alone serviceable ML starter or ace reliever, but youneverknow. So unless Reinecke does the almost impossible in the future, this trade is a win for the Astros even if Wolf never plays another game in an Astros uni.
7 – A-ball infielder Matt Cusick to the Yankees for LaTroy Hawkins
Money – piddling minor league salary: an insignificant portion of 1.375 mill = wash
Performance:- Matt Cusick – in A ball before trade: .285/.356/.462/.818 – had 23 lousy AB after trade.
- LaTroy Hawkins: as an Astro, 21.1 IP/24 - 11H, 5 BB, 23 K, 1 ER - 9 RSAA; as a Yankee – 41 IP over 33 G – 42H, 17 BB, 23 K (-) 6 RSAA
Conclusion: In 08, certainly a win for the Astros, with LaTroy being almost perfect and Cusick being just some guy in the low minors. Some day, who knows, it may turn into a Jeff Bagwell trade, who knows. Hopefully, Hawkins can be re-signed as the setup guy (please, oh Lord, don’t let Ed Wade figure Hawkins can close because he can’t.) Even if Cusick turns into Albert Pujols, I would still consider the trade a win, as the Astros desperately needed an 8th inning guy for cheap, and Hawkins was just that.
Ed Wade has the reputation of having good drafts as the Phillies GM. He certainly did very well with 4 of his first rounders, fer SHER. But, there ARE a whole lot more rounds, so I thought I’d look at them, see how well he did with picks reaching the majors – that is, guys who had more than a cup of coffee – at least 100 AB/50 IP†in the majors.
1998: signed 39/44 picks – the 5 unsigned never were MLB players
- Pat Burrell – 1st round, 1st pick, 1B/LF – Big Star
- Eric Valent – 1st round, 42nd pick, 4th OF – 480 ML AB scattered over 5 seasons, was traded to Reds for Kelly Stinnett in 03 – last year in ML 2005
- Jason Michaels – 4th round OF – came up in 03, is a 4th OF, traded to Indians for Arthur Rhodes after the 06 season.
- Ryan Madsen – 9th round RH RP – came up in 04, unsuccessful starter, good reliever, still with team
- Geoff Geary – 15th round, RH RP – came up in 04, good reliever, traded after the 07 season for Brad Lidge
- Nick Punto – 21st round – utility IF – came up in 04, traded after the 06 season for Eric Milton, “All-Star” and a pitcher Who Knows How To Win.
1999: 37/44 drafted; 3 of first 10 picks went unsigned and one of those, Joe Saunders,†is now #2 ML pitcher. Another unsigned pitcher, Kameron Loe, has been a SP/RP for the Rangers for 4 years.
- Brett Myers – 1st round, RHP – came up in 02 as SP – labeled ace, but was better than league average only in 05 and 06. Mediocre closer in 07, lousy in 08, sent to minors
- Marlon Byrd, 10th round, CF – came up in 03, touted as The Next Doug Glanville Only Better – which he wasn’t, not by a long shot.Had decent season in 03, terrible one in 04, traded to the Nats in 05 for Endy Chavez. Played in majors for 6 seasons, career 726 OPS.
2000: signed all 33 of the first 38 picks. 4 players made ML, 2 of whom had just a couple appearances.
- Chase Utley – 1st round, 2B – superstar. Rookie season in 04 was OK, but has been a stud since 05
- Taylor Buchholz – 6th round, RHP – traded as minor leaguer after the 03 season for 2 outstanding years of Billy Wagner
2001: signed 40/46 draftees, and only one of the unsigned players made the majors, had cop of coffee as RP.
- Gavin Floyd – 1st round, RHP – threw 110 innings over parts of the 04, 05, 06 season – Phils completely gave up on him, traded him after the 06 season to the White Sox for Freddy Garcia, who provided the Phils with 58 innings of 78 ERA+ ball and 2 club victories over 11 starts. Floyd got straightened out by the White Sox staff and is now a solid #2 guy.
- Ryan Howard – 5th round, 1B – superstar. In 03, he had just finished A ball, had an 888 OPS, and the Phils signed Jim Thome to a 6 year contract. Howard had an .897 OPS in an 04 cup of coffee, but was only called up to the majors in 05, in spite of a 1.157 OPS at AAA because Thome was down for the year with an injury. Howard won the ROY, and the Phils had a choice of trading their new superstar or Thome. They would have gotten bad pub trading their new STAR who won ROY, so they sent Thome and a LOT of $$$ to the White Sox for 1 year of Aaron Rowand. And yes, I know there is a lot of discussion even now about how the Phils thought that Howard was too ham-fisted to even handle 1B and how he struck out too much to succeed – um, wrong – not that Howard will ever MERIT the Gold Glove (notice I said MERIT, and not “receive” because we all know that the GG has more to do with BA than defensive prowess,†ain’t that right Derek†Jeter????)
2002: signed 41/47 picks: of the unsigned picks, only one had any ML time – a few lousy relief innings in 06. 3 of the signed picks had a couple of lousy innings in the majors, and none of them will be major leaguers. 2 others made AAA and one of them is already OOB and the other will not make the majors.
- Cole Hamels – 1st round, ace LH SP. Called up as 22 year old in 06, threw 134 innings of 110 ERA+ ball, and has been an ace ever since.
2003: signed 44/48 picks – of the unsigned picks, only 1 has excellent stats, but will not make the majors because his organization (Seattle) prefers a player who is really lousy. Another just made the majors with the other team who signed him – he’s a RP.
- Michael Bourn – 4th round – CF – looks as if his destiny is to be a 4th OF/DR, but he was traded for ace closer Brad Lidge, so he fetched a LOT more than he was worth as a player.
- Kyle Kendrick – 7th round – RH SP – one of those guys who was just supposed to be a career minor leaguer, but was called up from AA last year when some SP was injured and he stunned the Phils by throwing 121 innings (20 GS) of 3.87 ERA/ 1.27 WHIP ball with a K rate of 3.64/9 IP – those guys are not supposed to succeed, but sometimes, hey, they don’t CARE what baseball wisdom sez. He’s the #3 starter for the Phils this year – not quiiiite as good – 4.87 ERA over 20 GS in 109 IP – same low K rate of 4.05, but BB rate is up to 2.72/9 and homer rate is incredibly low (for CBP) at 1.24/9 IP. A gift they never expected.
2004: signed 46 of 50 players and everyone in the first 10 rounds. Their first rounder, an OF, is still at AA and has a 5 year minor league OPS of 710. The second rounder, a catcher, is now 25 and has spent the last 2 years in AAA and has a 697 OPS; they look like total flops to me. The only other player to reach AAA as a Phil is the 5th rounder, a pitcher, who sports a 4.87 ERA as a starter and reliever – and his 5 year minor league ERA is 4.50. He has a very low HR rate – 0.67 and a very low BB rate of 1. 75, but he only Ks 5.85/9 – still might could manage to relieve in CBP – youneverknow. And that is IT, except for
JJ Happ – 3rd round – LH SP – has thrown a couple of games in the majors, 2 good, 1 bad – looks as if he will get his chance now that Adam Eaton has been sent down.
2005: signed 47 of 49 picks. No first rounder. Only 2 have made AAA, the second round pick, Mike Costanzo, whose entire value has been as trade bait – first to get Brad Lidge for the Phils, then to get Miggy Tejada from the Orioles. The 3rd rounder, LHP Matt Maloney, was traded at the trade deadline last year for 2 months of Kyle Lohse, who gave the Phils 61 innings of 98 ERA+ pitching, PLUS a loss in the crucial NLDS game 3. Maloney looks as if he might could have a chance to play in the majors – ERA is 4.19, but WHIP is 1.23, HR is .97/9, BB is 2.58/9 and K is 8.58/9 – yeh, not exactly ace, but it isn’t like the Reds are stocked with awesome SP. Costanzo is a lead gloved 3B with a .741 OPS and a .406 SLG at AAA. AND 120 K over 350 AB.
The only guy to make the majors is Mike Zagursky, 12th round, who threw 21.1 relief innings last year with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP and is currently on the DL with leg problems.
That is all she wrote, unless one of the guys who is suckage in the low minors suddenly and unexpectedly succeeds when called up to be filler – srt of like Kyle Kendrick.
Summary:
1998 – Excellent draft. 1 top star for Phils; 2 good relievers†still playing†in majors†for the past†5 years; 1 utility IF who got them a ML starter in trade, playing for 5 years; 2 4th OF, 1 still playing for past 6 years, the other played for 3 years – neither did much for Phils
1999 – Less than average draft – 1 SP for 5 1/2 years, NOT the ace he was supposed to be, and one mediocre OF for 2 years who did not yield anyone useful in a trade.
2000 – Good draft – one superstar playing 5 years with Phils, 1 pitcher traded for 2 excellent years of superstar closer.
2001 – Good draft, but poor utilization of good ML pitcher who is now star for another team, for whome the Phils got essentially nothing in return and one superstar, whose prowess was seriously misjudged when he was a minor leaguer, which led Fightin Eddie to sign a hellaciously expensive FA for 6 years: The Phils lost significant $$$ on the deal, and received one excellent year of a CF.
2002 – OK draft – one ace pitcher and absolutely no one else of any value whatsoever
2003 -†Not a good†draft, AND no 1st or 2nd round picks. They got a 4th OF, who they traded for a great closer whose team didn’t want him there no mo, and a #3 SP who wasn’t expected to be a major leaguer. 1 other guy has made AAA, and that is it. I would have called this a lousy draft, except for the fact that one of their players was flipped by the CURRENT GM for an ace closer.
2004 – Really lousy. The only guy I see who even has a chance is a LH SP, who now has 18 ML innings, and no telling how he will do.
2005 – Massive suckage. The only good thing would be using Costanzo to get Lidge.
Conclusion – Fightin Eddie hasn’t had a good draft since he picked Cole Hamels in 02. Except for Ryan Howard, all his great picks were first rounders, and his last 3 drafts as a GM were piss poor. In my opinion, his rep as a great drafter is based on his outstanding 98 draft, as well as the success of 3 other of his first rounders. Very very few of his picks even made AAA, which is worrisome. VERY worrisome.
However, I must add that his scouting director was Mike Arbuckle, NOT Bobby Heck, and I have no idea how much input Wade’s scouting directors had/have on his judgement. But more than a few guys should REACH AAA.
You know the old Johnny Cash song (apologies for the liberties, Johnny) about the guy who builds himself a Cadilly-yack (as my youngest once called it) using pieces , um, collected from different models over many years:
“Wade got em one guy at a time
And it cost us a pretty dime
You’ll know the Astros when we come through your town
Gonna have no particular style
Gonna drive us Astros fans wild”
Well, isn’t it the perfect slogan for this year’s team? With God-knows-who from God-knows where all thrown together like Wade was concocting Stone Soup?
Psycho-Billy Cadillac
It’s great. Because it might LOOK crazy, but youneverknow, it just might could give you a smooth ride and run great even if there aren’t any available spare parts IF it breaks down…
