I know Mike Fast from our years together at The Hardball Times. Which reminds me – our Player Forecasts and comments are coming out soon – be sure to check it out. We have lots of smart people besides me helping out and stats genius Brian Cartwright’s OLIVER projections are awesome for this year’s fantasy players. And for people who want to read comments on players.

Where was I?

Oh yeah – Mike has done tons of work with pitch f/x and hit f/x – he left THT a couple of years ago, but you can check out everything he wrote for THT. I can’t link to his stuff over the past few years because they are behind the paywall at BPro.

This is the first good thing Luhnow has actually done. Mike is teh awesomeness. But he’s coming to work for a team on death row, and I guess you gotta start somewhere.

I seriously wish Mike all the best – he’s a very nice guy – and hope he isn’t disrespected.

Oh yeah, on a different topic – I see that Crane is going to let people bring in a bottle of water and food in a clear plastic bag. And lower the price of the cheap seats from $7 to $5. Along with the other sections that people really don’t want to sit in. I wonder if he’s going to have the ushers really police the sections – everyone HAS to show tickets in every section, even in that empty place.

Letting people bring in food and water isn’t gonna win over us hardcore fans, tell you that.

She “voluntarily” resigned. Sort of like Gerry Hunsicker, I guess.

I’m not surprised. I was actually surprised that she wasn’t, uh, nudged out along with everyone else. She did a great job getting groups and people into the ballpark. No idea who Crane is gonna get to replace her – either some reject from Saint Looey or some yesman.

At least she won’t be responsible for the mess that is the Astros attendance this year. I hear tell that season tickets are not exactly selling well. Jack Cust is not what sells tickets, not that they care.

She’s now a “special assistant” to Crane – sort of like Gerry Hunsicker was a “special assistant” to Drayton for a year. I’m sure he really is interested in her having anything to do with business operations except maybe train her replacement.

I’m surprised Alyson Footer hasn’t been dumped as well – I mean, she’s the only one left except for Millsie-poo. And I wouldn’t be real too surprised if he’s dumped mid-season when the team is still losing because a new manager – one of Luhnow’s cronies from the Cards – nice and cheap, too. Too bad Crane won’t seize the chance to dump Milo and his 2 crappy radio sidekicks.

I’m curious about what kind of revenue streams Crane thinks he’s gonna be getting. I haven’t heard any figures from the Comcast Sports Network that is gonna take over for FoxSports SW next year. No idea what’s going to folks with dish/direct TV or with people in the Astros blackout area who have a different cable provider. He’ll get his cut of the ESPN/Fox/MLBAM money all right, but no revenue sharing because the market size is too large. He has an apathetic, uncaring fan base, who have moved on to other interests, in no small part because of the move to the DH league. Unless he gets Rangers type yearly money from Comcast, I can’t see how this team’s payroll is ever going to go over 50-60 mill.

I can’t find an article on this anywhere, but Brian McTaggart has tweeted that the Astros have signed Jack Cust, a guy who can NOT field at ALL, to a 1 year deal plus an option.

He’s one of those TTO (Three True Outcome) guys that the moneyball guys used to fall all ovah BITGOD – he walks a lot, strikes out a lot, homers a lot, can’t run a lick and has a lead glove.H e was drafted in the first round by the Dbax in ‘97, got drooled all ovah by the stat geeks, but not by the Dbax Organization, who traded him to Colorado for a LOOGY. He spent the next 2 years in their monors, except for a cup of coffee, in which he stank. He was traded to the Orioles in 03 for some 4th OF – seeing as how the NL teams realized right quick that a DH is a DH.

He hit very well in his first serious ML callup – an .878 OPS over 85 PA, but then he seriously derailed his career with his infamous baserunning screwup when he was with the Orioles back in o3. This got him a 3 year stint strictly in the minors. He was signed as a minor league FA with the Athletics (his first stint) in 05, then as a minor league FA with the Padres in 06, in which he had a 1.016 OPS at Portland, but got only 3 ML ABs. He remained with the Pads, in their minor leagues to start 07, but was traded to the Athletics because they needed a DH.

You notice I keep talking about DH, right?

Anyway, he had a .912 OPS in 07, a .851 OPS in 08 (when he broke the K/season record, which would soon be shattered by Mark Reynolds) and a .773 OPS in 09.

The Athletics, who didn’t exactly have a roster full of hitters, didn’t want him back in ‘10, but ended up with him as a minor leaguer – he went up and down during the year, as they didn’t have anyone else who could, you know, like HIT, and he ended up posting an .883 OPS, with a .272 BA, his highest as a major leaguer, over 426 PA.

They really REALLY wanted nothing to do with him last year – he signed with the Mariners, didn’t hit at ALL, a .,673 OPS over 240 PA, then was released. He played in 6 games as a Phillies minor leaguer, went 5 fer 20 with 2 doubles, a homer and 3 walks before getting released. Which reminds me – I want to know why suddenly guys can’t hit at Safeco. Remember it was just a few years back that they had Edgar Martinez and Griffey and ARod and Bret Boone and Johjima all killing the ball? Why can’t even a hitter as good as Adrian Beltre hit there any more?

And here, the Houston Astros, who definitely do NOT need a DH this year, have signed him to a ML contract. He hasn’t played 6 full years in the majors even at this time and is considered a 3rd year arb player, believe it or not.

You notice I keep talking about DH, right? Well, he’s played 670 ML games, 1725.1 innings and has 10.7 total WAR and a negative 2.9 defensive WAR (meaning he’s bad.) He has a negative 42 runs saved above average (per Sean Smith, bbref) and a negative 29 Total Zone total fielding runs above average. To compare, Michael Bourn, back in 2010, had 1189 innings, and his respective numbers were PLUS 25 and PLUS 16 – and you notice how many fewer innings we’re talking about. You don’t want to even hear about his fielding percentage or range factor – or the lack thereof.

To summarize, he’s worse than Clank at his worst. Remember Mike Lamb trying to play LF back in 05 (shudder) or Biggio in left in 04? That’s what I mean by DH. I’m hoping they intend to use him as this year’s lefty PH, unless he’s going in the minors. I don’t know what this means for JB Shuck or Bogusevic, but what can I say?

Oh yeah – before I forget – Cust was named in the Mitchell report. He denied it all, and was apparently believed – at least nobody called him before Congress to defend himself or accused him of perjury because he dared to disagree with George Mitchell’s report. Interesting that Roger Clemens didn’t get the same treatment, isn’t it?

Hope all yall had a Merry Holiday and a Happy New Year. Despite this being the worst virus season I can remember, we all managed to have at least a holiday.

Now, down to business:

First, to revisit The Hated Tim Purpura’s drafts of 05 and 06 and remembering that he wasn’t permitted to sign “signability” guys or to go over slot:

2005: first rounder Brian Bogusevic – whose career may have been seriously screwed because they development people insisted that he pitch. He has a GOOD college hitter, but I guess they figured they had another Tim Hudson (yes, small as he is, he was a GOOD college hitter). He SHOULD have been a very solid ML outfielder instead of a 4th OF type – youneverknow, maybe this year he’ll finally get his due.

Tommy Manzella made the majors, too, but was derailed by a wrist injury and replaced by Angel Sanchez, and he never again got a chance.

Of the remainder of the guys who signed, and they signed all but 1 of their top 10 picks, and he never went anywhere: 4 reached AAA and 2 of em, Brandon Barnes and Koby Clemens are still with the Astros, but are not major league material. They are not really even AAA material. 6 of em reached AA, and only one is still playing OB. Remember Josh Flores, who tore UP the Carolina League in 07? Gone.

Interestingly enough – the 46th round pick, who did not sign with us, Wes Musick, signed with the Rox in 09 in the 9th round, and came back to the Astros minors last year in the Matt Lindstrom trade – he’s a starter/reliever at high A, at age 24. Not that I see a major leaguer here.

2006: 4th rounder Chris Johnson and 6th rounder Bud Norris made the majors. Bud is a solid Ml pitcher and CJ – well, he had a good half year, which is more than lots of guys get.

Of the remainder of the guys who signed, only Sergio Perez made AAA – he’s spent most of his career hurt or recovering from injuries and he didn’t have a good year last year, so who knows if he’ll get another chance.

The only other player who is still with the Astros is AA player Jimmy VonOstrand, who finished his 3rd straight year at AA – killed the ball, just as he did in 2010. I’m not sure why he wasn’t promoted after 09, but he wasn’t, now he’s 26, and he may get to AAA, but he’s “old” and was an 8th rounder, which means nobody cares.

2 major leaguers from one draft isn’t terrible, but on the other hand, no one else was useful in any way, not even as a trade chip, and no draftee succeeded with any other Organization, including those who didn’t sign with the Astros.

And this was the year that Drayton wouldn’t trade any FA to be, or offer arb to any FA to be who would get a big contract from someone.

2007: this was the year that Drayton signed Clank and Woody Williams and forfeited his first 2 picks, then refused to give Derek Dietrich or Brett Eibner one penny over slot for the 3rd and 4th rounds.

The only useful player drafted whether or not he signed with the Astros or with some other team some other year, was Matt Cusick, a 10th rounder, who was traded for LaTroy Hawkins.

Collin DeLome, the 5th rounder, made it to AAA, where he plays OF and has a .750 OPS. Not ML material. The only other player still with the Astros is 20th rounder Kyle Greenwalt, now age 22, who pitched 71 lousy innings at AA in 2011. Shrug.

So

Did Fast Eddie and Bobby Heck do any better in their drafts?

2008: First rounders Jason Castro, The Golden Boy, spent last year on the DL, still has to show he can hit ML pitching and block pitches, and Jordan Lyles. Lyles was called up at age 20 and managed to survive. He would have been left to finish the year at AAA in a better Organization, and he has no bullpen to back him up and not much in the way of bats.

6th rounder, J.B. Shuck, made it to the bigs last August, surprising pretty much everyone. He’s a 4th OF with a decent glove, who makes good contact and, for an Astro, has good strike zone judgement and doesn’t flail away at crap. He’ll take a walk, too. He just may make the team as the 5th OF this year, seeing as how Fast Eddie isn’t here to re-sign his True Love, Jason useless Michaels.

2nd rounder Jay Austin, age 21, is still considered one of the Astros top 10 prospects even though he had a .683 OPS at hitters’ paradise Lancaster. UCK.

3rd rounder Chase Davidson did not sign, went to college, and was the Astros last pick of the 2011 draft (the boy lost some $$$ there) and tore Up the rookie league – not sure why he was started there.

3rd rounder Ross Seaton, age 21, heavily pimped pitcher, was thrown to the wolves at Lancaster, seriously stunk, was promoted to AA, stunk again – 5.23 ERA/1.39 WHIP – 5.63 K/9, 1.10 HR/9, 2.73 BB/9, 10 H/9.

4th and 7th rounders TJ Steele and Jonny Gaston both stunk up AA with bat, although they both are supposed to be glove men.

5th rounder is OOB

8th rounder Brad Dydalewicz, who was supposedly one of those signability guys who got paid second round $$$ is still in A ball – he posted ERAs over 10 for the past 2 years, and only threw 30.2 innings this year – either he’s hurt or OOB.

48th rounder reliever Danny Meszaros made it to AAA – strikes out a lot of guys, but unfortuantely gives up way too many homers and walks. He’s 26 already, doubtful he’d get to the majors. It’s incredible that he made it to AAA.

There are several other non-descript players who finished 2011 in A ball of AA who do not appear to have any chance of making AAA, let alone the majors.

2009: 20th rounder JD Martinez made it to the majors last summer – looks as if he has a very good chance of staying.

1st rounder Jiovanni Mier is still, for some reason, on Astros top prospect lists, even though by now it should be apparent that he can’t hit his way out of a paper bag, even at Lancaster. He’s a great glove guy (supposedly) in spite of making tons of errors. Another one of those signability guys, I suspect. I’m not sure why he was even considered a first rounder by anyone.

The next 3 guys, Tanner Bushue (RHP), Telvin Nash (he gots the powah but he strikes out like 40% of his PA) and Jonathan Meyer (3B who hits like a SS): (BJ Hyatt didn’t make it out of rookie ball) are still in A ball.

The 5th rounder, Brandon Wikoff is another Tommy Manzella – a SS who doesn’t hit for power, and hit well at AA – .308/.398/.353 – yeah, 6 doubles and 3 homers in 331 AB.

7th rounder, Dallas Keuchel, started 20 games in AA with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP – trouble is that his strikeouts are 5.6/9 IP and unfortunately, that isn’t quite high enough. He reminds me of that groundball guy who had a good year the first year we had an inkling that Bud Norris might just be good. He threw 7 lousy games at AAA – no unearned runs – too many walks and homers and not enough Ks  3.75/9 IP over 31 IP.

13th rounder, Jake Goebbert, OF made it to AAA where he posted unimpressive numbers: in 103 PA, a .760 OPS. He could use more AB, but his OPS has been in the low 800s since he started in the minors – hardly tearing it up. But we’ll see because youneverknow.

Part 2 later.

Sorry no posting for a few weeks. Been trying to find SOMEthing good to say. And I can’t.

Maury Brown posted on facebook a few days ago – “I feel sorry for those working, and rooting, for the Houston Astros. And that’s all I’m going to say about that.”. He wouldn’t tell me what he was talking about, but he’s done a LOT of looking into the Astros with the sale and coming from him, that’s NOT good. Someone commented – well, at least we’re rid of Drayton, Tal and Fast Eddie. Maury said – “.you’d be surprised how much happened the past 3 years that had nothing to do with at least two of them.”

sigh – gee I wonder who THAT was. Yes, sarchasm…

And it sure looks as if Bagwell isn’t getting anywhere near the HOF again. Too many people have decided he deserves the steroids suspect tag. Unlike the supposedly “clean” people. Check out Chris Jaffe’s take on this year’s election at The Hardball Times. Barry Larkin looks to be the only one who is gonna make it in this year. The attendance at the museum has been decreasing steadily, and refusal to induct good players because of suspiscious minds sure isn’t helping the Hall’s bottom line…

No, that’s not sarcastic.

The only player we got in his trades to the Phils who is/was any good is Michael Bourn – and Geoff Geary, who was good for a year before he got hurt. Roy-O got us J Happ (who is crappy) and Brett Wallace (who doesn’t look as if his swing is gonna hit ML pitching) and Jonathan Vilar, who can’t hit minor league pitching – don’t ask me why he’s “the second baseman/SS of the future. Pence PLUS money went for Jarred Cosart (age 21 – lowish hits, low K, middling walks for a starter), Jonathan Singleton (a 20 yo 1B in A ball with an .850 OPS – higher at Lancaster, but everyone but Jiovanni Mier hits there) and Josh Zeid (crappy 24 year old reliever at AA).

I’ve been looking at Dan Szymborski’s 2012 ZIPS projections for the Astros and it is beyond bad. The only 2 players he predicts to have an OPS+ over 100 are Clank and JD Martinez. The only 2 starts he predicts to be over league average are Wandy and Bud Norris and Wandy is gonna be gone – the line of teams who want him include everyone except the Rays and Braves, who are pitching heavy, and the cheapos – I mean, “rebuilders.”

We know that to start the year, we’ll have Mary Jane Schafer in CF, JD Martinez in left, Jed Lowrie at SS, Clank at 1B (unless Luhnow can dump him), Jose Altuve at 2B and Jimmy Paredes at 3B – unless he gets hurt – CJ is toast, unless he kills the ball in ST and Paredes doesn’t hit at all.

We’ll have some sort of platoon in right and center with Jack Shuck, Brian Bogusevic and Jason Bourgeois.

Jason Castro is hurt again – he’s having a bone taken out of his foot – his right foot – the same leg which has the bad knee. It’s the same operation Jeff Keppinger had last year. So we have Quintero – who, with his 1 mill/year salary, is the 6th highest paid person on the team. And then Craig Tatum and Robinson Cancel, who are so bad that they make poor ol Towlsie-poo look like Piazza. Chris Wallace is having trouble hitting AA pitching. Of course, the fact that he outhit Castro at that level doesn’t mean a thing because Castro is still, far as I can tell, Mr. Golden Boy.

Only 3 good things I can think of are

1 – John Sickels, who is a tough guy to impress, thinks that Altuve is GOOD, and that he’s the real deal. 2 of my internet pals, who are very knowledgeable about the minors, agree.

2 – several of my internet pals, who have seen a lot of ballplayers come and go, all think that JD Martinez looks good.

3 – Bogu just may get a good opportunity to start and yeah, it IS a late start, but I sure would like to see SOMEone who was an Original Astros pick succeed besides Bud Norris.

I wonder if this year’s team is even gonna get 40 wins. I said that last year, but this year, I have a feeling it is gonna be close.